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Ever wonder what the hell takes the rating agencies so long? Today, leading credit agency Fitch downgraded Portugal’s debt amid “growing concerns about the government’s ability to service it’s borrowings.” Well – duh – increased borrowings coupled with decreasing tax revenues should raise concerns. What amazes me is that the Euro traded down today on […]
Stumped about the inflation/deflation debate? Good news – you’re not alone! Hard Asset Investor’s Brad Zigler is also somewhat undecided on the subject. Though he leans toward inflation, he acknowledges that very strong deflationary forces are also in play. Though you know that I’m one of the lonely souls in the deflationary camp (along with […]
US households continue to shed debt at a record pace – this graph says it all… US households are finally “just saying no” to debt. To put this breakdown in perspective – the Fed’s data on this goes back to 1976, and household debt grew every single year until 2009. In fact, we’re looking at […]
Bernanke – man of the year. Did he earn it? Or pushing on a string? Markets Strong Out of the Gates…But How Much Conviction is Left? The broader indices continued to climb higher in the first week of trading in 2010. But how much buying power is behind these moves? Moves straight up usually don’t […]
Tom Dyson, one of my favorite investment writers/analysts, is also one of the very few lone soles left in the debt deflation / dollar bull camp (last one out, please turn out the lights!) Last week, Tom penned an article that I thought articulated the case for a near term dollar rally brilliantly – and […]
I think we’re at a key inflection point in the financial markets at this juncture. The direction that things head next could decide the winner, at least for the next few years, of the inflation vs. deflation battle. So I spent the morning revisiting and rereading many of my favorite arguments from both sides of […]
To say that consumer credit is contracting in the United States may be a bit of an understatement! Can you spot the trend in consumer credit? Contracting credit is the crux of Robert Prechter’s deflationary thesis – something we’ve been discussing at length in this space. How about another haiku to summarize? Credit’s going poof […]
So is the money supply increasing, or not? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph writes that US credit is shrinking big time – at it’s fastest rate since…drumroll…the 1930’s. Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14% in the three months to August (from […]
We keep hearing how US households are paying off their debts. The important question is – how much debt is left to be paid off? For some insights into how much painful deleveraging may be left – I’d like to share what Bill Bonner wrote in today’s Daily Reckoning (an excellent free email newsletter by […]
Here’s another “on the ground” economy exclusive for you – earlier this week, I was having a friendly chat about the economy with our neighbor who sells bail bonds. Talk about insight into what’s going on in the world of Joe Sixpack – with an ironic twist that these are the families of folks who […]
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