Historically, for whatever reason, stocks have made most of their gains between November 1 and May 1. (Hence the phrase “sell in May and go away.”)
I won’t bore you with the statistical details because they don’t matter for our purposes. Every year is unique, and we treat each as such. But, for our contrarian edge, it is helpful that the onset of fall provokes fear in the hearts of mainstream investors.
The S&P 500 is acting like it’s about to slip off a cliff. It’s been a year since the market’s last meaningful correction. We’re in the fragile half of the year and, seasonally speaking, September and October tend to be particularly weak.… Read more