Is This the Dividend Trade of the Decade?

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Attention, growth investors! A quick stock market question for you.

(Dividend people, you are welcome to play, too.)

Take a quick peek at the chart below. The lines are revenue gains over the past twelve months for four stocks.

Three of them are top holdings in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The fourth, well, is a contrarian special that careful readers already know. (Hint, hint.)

Which sales curve would you want to own?

Pick Your Growth Stock

Did you peek at the key? Of course you did. Well, were you surprised that Exxon Mobil (XOM) was running laps around these three laggards?… Read more

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Will China buy Bitcoin? If I were President Xi Jinping, looking across the Taiwan Strait, I would. Why wouldn’t he want to diversify his $1 trillion pile of Treasuries?

But there’s one thing that Xi—or any autocrat, for that matter—needs more than coins: Real assets with cash flow.

We’ll talk dividend trades that will benefit from these global trends in a moment. First, let’s start with crypto, because (indulge me, please) I need to get caught up on these questions. I’ve been saving a note from Joseph B., who asks what recommendations we have on cryptocurrencies.

Fellow reader Ted F. also asks about crypto, but from the Federal Reserve’s perspective.… Read more

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“Mom, please make sure you secure your mask first before assisting the kiddos.”

We receive this reminder every flight from at least one flight attendant. Mom receives the reminder while your income strategist sits across the aisle (a mile away as far as his parenting partner is concerned) in an uneventful seat dubbed Daddy Island.

This, of course, runs counter to Mom’s (and even Dad’s) instinct. If your kid is in trouble, your first, second and third reaction is to help your child first. The airline’s point is that we can best help our children by first securing our own oxygen.… Read more

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We contrarians make our money by buying when things look bleak. We did that, and we’re up 149% on this excellent energy dividend.

But our strategy has suddenly become popular. Heck, I saw a front-page piece on Bloomberg.com outlining our “Crash ‘n Rally” energy strategy!

So, what do we do now?

We’ll talk about next steps for energy dividends in a moment. First, let’s recap how we got here so that we can decide if we want to order another quadruple-shot of Texas tea or step aside of the mainstream herd.

In April 2020, crude oil prices crashed. They actually hit negative territory, which means producers were paying people to take the goo off their hands.… Read more

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As the stock market returns to Planet Earth, we contrarians will have an opportunity to cherry pick some bargains. This is a good thing for us income seekers. We’ve been thin on dividend deals since the Federal Reserve cranked the printing presses in the spring of 2020.

Last year was slim pickings for income plays. When the Fed’s easy money drives prices of everything higher and higher, our dividend yields go down.

This makes it challenging for us to identify meaningful yields with a bit of upside. After all, we’re in the business of buying low and selling high (not buying high and hoping to ride a price even higher).… Read more

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As dividend yields and interest rates dropped in recent decades, income investors looked for ways to generate cash flow from stocks. Selling (“writing”) covered calls is one strategy that has gained attention.

It is certainly a conservative options strategy that most income investors think they should do. The math is compelling.

Here’s how it works. We would buy a dividend stock like Exxon Mobil (XOM) for its $0.87 per share quarterly payout (a 6% yield). Then we would write a covered call with a “strike” price just above the stock’s current level.

For example, XOM trades below $60 as I write.… Read more

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Oil stocks—and their fat dividends—are breaking out to new highs.

Question for you. If Fed Chair Jay Powell hadn’t printed a bunch of money over the past 14 months, would energy stocks still be this electric?

Chairman JP Prints Lots of Money

My take? No way. Their recovery would be (much) more muted.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)—the best and most unbiased source of industry information I know—world oil demand is projected to hit 96.7 million barrels per day this year.

Meanwhile, global supply is just 93.6 million barrels per day. Production was halted when the world shut down a spring ago.… Read more

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Like many wise money quotes, nobody is quite sure who originally said:

     “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

It’s frequently credited to economist John Maynard Keynes. A popular story goes that Keynes changed his mind on a financial issue, was criticized for his “flip flop”—and then delivered the zinger.

QuoteInvestigator.com researched the quip and concluded that Keynes never actually said it. (Keep that bit of market trivia in your back pocket.)

Regardless, the facts have changed on big oil dividends. On September 9, 2015, I warned readers that Big Oil was a “Big Dividend Trap.”Read more

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Our beat here at Contrarian Outlook is dividends. We seek to collect them using proven income strategies.

Dividend stock investing isn’t easy, even though it looks so on the surface. (Find a high yield, and buy it!) We’ve all had our heart broken by one or more “disappearing” dividend payers in the past. These delinquents are the reason we place such a premium on dividend security.

One secure-looking strategy is (unfortunately) known as dividend capture. I don’t like the name because it sounds like something we should be interested in. I don’t like the approach itself because it doesn’t really work.… Read more

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It’s the most common rule in investing: if you want to cut your risk (and protect your dividends!), you need to diversify.

Yes, we’ve all heard it before, but what most people don’t get is just how much you can damage your finances by not sticking with it—or, conversely, how much you can reap in gains (and safe dividends) by following a smart diversification strategy.

From $0 to $1 Million in Assets … and Back to $0

I’ve seen this play out firsthand; a friend was an early employee at a social media startup that got a big investment from a tech billionaire.… Read more

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