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I think I’ve been asked every day this week from ordinary people if I’m trading NVIDIA (NVDA).

Be careful out there, my fellow contrarian!

A sharp pullback is possible. Something has to shake the froth out of this market. When that happens, investors will look for stocks that are high on income and low on volatility. Today we’ll highlight six paying up to 8.6%.

The secret is beta, a measure of an investment’s volatility against a benchmark. For instance, usually the S&P 500.

If a stock has a beta of 1, it means it’s every bit as volatile as “the market.”… Read more

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The 2024 Dogs of the Dow are particularly homely hounds—which means we’re talking big dividends.

This year’s Dogs yield more than three-times the broader market’s paltry payout. So, should we hold our noses and buy? Let’s grab some peanut butter treats and investigate. But first, a review of the “Dogs” strategy.

The “Dogs of the Dow” strategy means buying the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s laggards. It’s a simple three-step strategy that often outperforms in the year ahead:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.
  • Step 2: Buy all 10 stocks in equal amounts and hold them for a year.

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Looking for the Dogs of the Dow, 2023 edition? You came to the right place.

We’ll explore these 10 blue-chip dividend bargains in a moment. Collectively, they are yielding 4.5%! But first, a quick recap of the strategy and homage to its 2022 “mini miracle.”

Last year was a dumpster fire for most mainstream investors. The market-at-large dropped 18%. “Safe” bond funds shed 25%, 30% or more. Yikes.

But the dogs ran. Not only did they outpace the market, but they delivered positive gains!

Who were these income greyhounds? And what’s the lineup for ’23? First, a refresher on this simple three-step strategy:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.

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Vanilla investors are selling. Which means we income-focused contrarians are buying.

Our goal, after all, is to retire on dividends. So why would we run from the biggest dividends that Mr. and Ms. Market have presented us in years?

Yields, yields, yields. We recently discussed 29 income funds yielding more than 8%.

How about stocks? Glad you asked. Let’s chat about 16 sweet large-cap cash-machine stocks paying up to 15%.

If you didn’t catch it, I recently chatted with Moe Ansari on his Market Wrap program. You can read more about it here, but in short, I said the time to sell was over—we’re flush with cash and ready to buy.… Read more

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Wall Street has been giving investors whiplash lately, as the big rebound from July evaporated in August. And as we look to close out the year, more volatility is sure to follow.

Most financial news channels blame the choppy environment on rising interest rates, rampant inflation or other macroeconomic boogeymen. But that’s just because the media needs to keep you clicking on headlines if they want to get paid! The real reason for recent volatility is much simpler.

It’s not really troublesome data points driving the market, but rather troublesome bouts of “first order” thinking.

Spend time around toddlers or pets and you’ll see the perils of first order thinking on display.… Read more

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These days, everyone is looking for safety—and that’s got some folks pondering some pretty, er, unusual strategies that seem secure but are in fact anything but.

One such strategy is known as dividend capture, which sounds like a way to bag a company’s quarterly cash dividend without taking the risk of owning the shares. I don’t like the name because it sounds like something we dividend investors should be interested in. I don’t like the approach itself because it doesn’t really work.

The theory seems innocent enough:

  1. Find a stock that is about to pay a dividend,
  2. Buy it before it’s “ex-dividend date,”
  3. Pocket the payout, and
  4. Sell the shares after.

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Once upon a time, it was hard to find an income strategy much better than the idiot-proof “Dogs of the Dow.”

And hey, in this wild market in which the S&P can drop 2% in a couple of hours, this sounds pretty good. Let’s buy some blue chips and earn 3x more income than the broader market.

Which Dogs are paying the biggest dividends for 2022? As a group these battleship businesses are paying 3.8% versus just 1.2% for the broader market. We’ll review them in a moment. First, the Dogs of the Dow rules:

  • Rule 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.

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Ignore anyone who says share splits have no impact on your portfolio (or your dividends!).

They absolutely do set you up for a nice price bump. I’ve seen it time and time again. It’s easy to see why: when a company—especially a top-notch dividend grower—splits its shares, the move draws in folks who’ve been holding off, seeing the pre-split price as too expensive.

Let’s be honest: we’ve all done this. How many times have you avoided a stock because it trades for $300 a share? Or $500 (or whatever your idea of expensive is)? Never mind the really high traders, like Alphabet (GOOGL), at $2,700, or Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A),Read more

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The S&P 500 is still levitating, and if you’re like me, you’re starting to feel like this bull run is on borrowed time.

It’s understandable. The economy is just now stumbling to its feet, yet interest rates are already creeping higher. I think you’ll agree that we need higher borrowing costs like we need a hole in the head!

Treasury Rates Bust Through the 1% Barrier

Sure, 1.2% is a historically low number, but bear in mind 1% is an important psychological barrier, and we’re already well beyond that—and once rates broke through it, you can see how quickly they took off.… Read more

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For income investors, dividend strategies don’t come any easier than the “Dogs of the Dow.”

But does this simple technique still work?

We’ll look at the 2021 Dogs, and their attached dividends (and prospects) in a moment. Their yields aren’t too shabby, averaging 4.1% in a 1% world! First, let’s review the mechanics of the popular contrarian strategy:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, we identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.
  • Step 2: We buy all 10 in equal amounts.

That’s it. In just a couple of quick steps, executed just once every year, we can put together a mini-portfolio of 10 blue-chip stocks that typically out-yield the S&P 500, and currently offer 2.5 times more dividends than the broad market index.… Read more

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