Have We Seen the Secular Bottom in Interest Rates?

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The Contrary Investing Report > Bonds

Interest rates are beginning to creep up – and technical guru Carl Swenlin believes this may the long-awaited secular upturn in rates.  He outlines – and shows via his trademark charts – why this is. Interest Rates Turning Up? by Carl Swenlin Based upon very long-term charts and commentary from Hoisington Investment Management Company, for some […]

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The “short long-term government bonds” trade must be in contention as one that’s extracted the most money from otherwise smart traders and investors over the past five years.  Interest rates just CAN’T go any lower from here – right?  We heard this in 2008, and we’re hearing it again today – with bond yields at […]

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On Friday, while writing about the big “Bill Gross is out of US bonds” news, I mused that now might be a good time to take a flyer on Treasuries: Sentiment is so bearish on the Long Bond that I’d expect prices to get at least a short-term pop of sorts.  It’s been a rapid rise […]

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Bill Gross is OUT of US Treasuries: Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pacific Investment Management Co. has emptied Pimco’s Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund, of its U.S. government-related holdings, including Treasury debt, the company disclosed on Wednesday. Source: MarketWatch The Bond King has expressed concern about […]

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Regular readers know that we abhor muni bonds as much as anyone.  But my interest has recently been piqued by calls for short-term rallies from sharp guys like David Rosenberg and Steve Sjuggerud, who have cited the market as oversold due to the abrupt end of the Build America Bonds program. A somewhat misleading Bloomberg […]

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Hey, have you noticed muni bonds lately?  They’re crashing! Muni bonds fall off a cliff (Source: StockCharts.com) We shall see where they go from here – but the recent rally sure looks like it your standard fare retracement/dead cat bounce – paving the way nicely for the next leg lower. DailyWealth’s Dan Ferris believes this […]

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Bond King Bill Gross writes that the Fed’s QE2 announcement will likely “mark the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds.”  From his latest PIMCO investment outlook: We at PIMCO join with Ben Bernanke in this diagnosis, but we will tell you, as perhaps he cannot, that the outcome is by no means […]

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Today, Bloomberg was quick to post a headline trumpeting the end of deflation: Deflation Disappears With Bond Market Showing Growth Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) — The bond market is showing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will succeed in sparking inflation after the smallest gain in core consumer prices in half a century increased concerns that the […]

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Perhaps a sign that we’re heading into a deflationary spiral – perhaps a clear sign of a bond bubble – or perhaps some mixture of both.  From Bloomberg: The amount of money flowing into bond funds is poised to exceed the cash that went into stock funds during the Internet bubble, stoking concern fixed-income markets […]

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