These 4.8%-5.9% Yields Could Get Hacked Apart

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The Contrary Investing Report > NYSE:M

A stock’s yield is only as good as its cash flow because, after all, a dividend is nothing more than a promise from a company.

CenturyLink (CTL) recently reminded us of this. Its promised $0.54 per share dividend exceeded its ability to pay. The firm’s payout ratio of 130% – the percentage of profits that it was paying as dividends – was an absurd overpromise that couldn’t last forever:

CenturyLink’s Payout Promise Was Always on Borrowed Time

CEO Jeffrey Storey insisted his team remained “committed to and confident in our ability to maintain the dividend.” I understood the commitment, but questioned the confidence–taking on debt to pay dividends is a losing game.… Read more

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The U.S. and China held another round of trade talks in Washington D.C. this week, ahead of the looming March 1 deadline for potential tariff increases. Trading activity was relatively quiet during the holiday-shortened week and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended an eight-session winning streak on Thursday.

Fed on Hold, Q4 GDP on Deck

Investors digested the minutes from the January FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Fed funds futures are now factoring in a 92% probability that the committee will take no action with interest rates in either direction in 2019.

Looking ahead to next week, Fed Chairman Powell will be on Capitol Hill on Feb.… Read more

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Q: Are REITs (real estate investment trusts) going to be hurt by the new tax reform?

Not at all. In fact, the new tax plan actually favors these generous dividend payers.

Let me explain why – and then point you towards the best REITs to buy for 2018.

A Smaller Tax Bill on REIT Dividends

The IRS already allows REITs to avoid paying income taxes if they pay out most of their earnings to shareholders. As a result these firms tend to collect rent checks, pay their bills and send most of the rest of the cash to us as dividends.…
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We were inching forward on a busy road in suburban Boston. I looked out our window and asked my friend how much of the retail strip to our right he’d short (if he could).

Joey works for a real estate hedge fund in New York, by the way.

“All of it,” he replied without hesitation.

He paused.

“Sell it all.”

I nodded in agreement. Death by Amazon before our very eyes!

Now you and I don’t normally chat about brick and mortar stores because, quite frankly, who cares about retail stocks. They don’t pay big dividends unless they’re in big trouble, like Macy’s (M) (and its 7.6% mirage yield) right now.…
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Today, I’m going to warn you about five stocks with yields of 7% or more that should be avoided at all costs. They are my next “dividend disaster” candidates that are likely to either reduce their payouts, or lose 20% or more in price, or both.

Big current yields have nothing to do with safety. Consider these year-to-date performances from high-yielding companies that started 2017 with juicy yields, but at some point cut or suspended their dividends:

  • Windstream: Yielded 7.5%, lost 75%
  • Mattel: Yielded 5.5%, lost 45%
  • GNC: Yielded 7%, lost 26%

I warned you to sell Mattel late last year, before its dividend cut.…
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Let’s talk about five big payouts that are so flimsy, they’re just asking for the ultimate sign of dividend disrespect:

Paying money to short them.

It’s one thing to turn down a decent yield in today’s 2% world. It’s another to be willing to pay the dividend in order to bet against the stock!

Yet here are five firms with archaic business models (some are so-2015) that their cash flow streams will soon dry up. And when the cash evaporates, so will the dividend.

Which is why I may short some or all of these shares in the weeks ahead after this piece publishes.…
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We were inching forward on a busy road in suburban Boston. I looked out our window and asked my friend how much of the retail strip to our right he’d short (if he could).

Joey works for a real estate hedge fund in New York, by the way.

“All of it,” he replied without hesitation.

He paused.

“Sell it all.”

I nodded in agreement. Death by Amazon before our very eyes!

Now you and I don’t normally chat about brick and mortar stores because, quite frankly, who cares about retail stocks. They don’t pay big dividends unless they’re in big trouble, like Macy’s (M) (and its 6.5% mirage yield) right now.…
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Sometimes it’s best to sell in May and just stay away. Especially when a firm’s dividend stream is being eaten alive by Amazon & Co.

The Wall Street Journal’s Mark Hulbert studied the “summer rally myth” last year – and concluded it is indeed a good time to sell:

“Over the past 60 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has produced an average monthly return of just 0.1% during these three summer months, compared with a 0.7% average for all other months.”

Worse, even skilled market timers don’t have much to work with. Hulbert found that over the past 60 years, rallies from June’s lows into highs over the next two months averaged 6.9% — the third-lowest such rally potential, behind (you guessed it) July and August.…
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