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The market’s reaction to Jay Powell’s “hawkish” Jackson Hole rant was interesting. He spoke for eight minutes. Stocks crashed for the rest of the trading session and have continued lower since.

Funny because I didn’t hear anything new. The mid-summer sucker’s rally was based on the hope that Powell would “pivot” early in 2023 and lower rates again.

He can’t unless the economy is really in the tank by then. Like “deep recession” bad. Otherwise, inflation is going to come back.

Larry Summers compared it to skimping on a doctor’s prescription. If you stop taking your antibiotics too soon, the infection comes back.… Read more

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Thinking like a contrarian can sometimes be a crucial part of investing profitably. To be clear, that doesn’t mean you ignore reality. It just means that you’re willing to look beyond the obvious narratives based on the last few trading days, and instead look to what the future holds.

Right now, we’re at an interesting point in the stock market that lends itself to contrarian thinking. On one hand, the last several months have all given us ample proof of the risks on Wall Street – inflation, rising rates and volatility. But looking forward, the narrative may be changing.

July Inflation was flat month-over-month as measured by the Consumer Price Index.… Read more

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