Our Christmas Gift: A 7.9% Tax-Free Dividend Plus 8% Discount

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Merry Christmas, my fellow contrarian! Did Santa bring you a tax-advantaged dividend this morning?

The municipal bonds funding the Las Vegas Valley Nevada Water District would have made a great stocking stuffer. They yield 5% and get a tax hall pass from Uncle Sam. Which means on a tax equivalent basis they actually pay 6% or 7% or more, depending on your income tax bracket.

Vegas is booming. And the town is in the middle of a hot desert that is increasingly arid, so this muni is rock solid.

Five percent, tax free. Why’d you forget this, Santa?

Well fear not, my fellow “naughty lister.”… Read more

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Are higher interest rates and lower bond prices a sure thing for 2025? Mainstream financial pundits say yes.

Which gives us thoughtful contrarians pause. Their narrative against bonds is assumed. When this happens, markets tend to move in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom.

Which means we should bet with bonds. At least in the near term to start the new year. Let’s watch bonds rally and surprise everyone except for us. The “Trump is bad for bonds” trade may eventually be correct, but my hunch again is that this “surefire” call is early.

For all the recent commotion, the 10-year Treasury yield bounces between 3.3% and 5%, with an even narrower 3.6% to 4.7% range recently.… Read more

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Are higher interest rates and lower bond prices a sure thing for 2025? Mainstream financial pundits say yes.

Which gives us thoughtful contrarians pause. Their narrative against bonds is assumed. When this happens, markets tend to move in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom.

Which means we should bet with bonds. At least in the near term to start the new year. Let’s watch bonds rally and surprise everyone except for us. The “Trump is bad for bonds” trade may eventually be correct, but my hunch again is that this “surefire” call is early.

For all the recent commotion, the 10-year Treasury yield bounces between 3.3% and 5%, with an even narrower 3.6% to 4.7% range recently.… Read more

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Well the “index huggers” hurled their positions quickly, didn’t they! Some bad jobs numbers. A rally in the Japanese yen. And it was sayonara, SPY.

The financial “squares” use blunt instruments. When they panic, they dump the only ETF they own. Turns out they were all short the Japanese yen heading into the weekend!

When the margin call came, they sold the only ticker they own: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

I warned you about SPY three weeks ago, just before it crashed. My problem with SPY came down to three stocks, Apple (AAPL)Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), which made up 21% of the index—and still do!Read more

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Look, rate cuts are only weeks away now—likely starting in September. And there’s one terrific way to tap them: high-yielding municipal bonds!

I know most folks think “munis”—issued by state and local governments to fund infrastructure projects—are boring.

It is, frankly, a ridiculous opinion. Tell me what’s “boring” about an investment that kicks out a 7.7% tax-free dividend!

To be sure, there are a couple quibbles you might have with munis.

For one, they’re tough to buy individually. But that’s really not a problem: ETFs offer one way in, but a much better way—and the only road to 7.7%+ dividends—is through closed-end funds (CEFs) like the three we’ll break down in just a second.… Read more

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Some of our favorite high-yield dividends just did something stunning: They sent their investors’ payouts soaring—in some cases by more than 30% overnight.

All of these high-paying dividend growers are municipal bond funds, a corner of the market many folks see as boring—if they know about it at all.

I don’t know what’s “boring” about a payout that leaps double-digits in one go—and hands us a 7%+ tax-free dividend, to boot!

That’s exactly what’s happened at a slew of “muni” focused closed-end funds (CEFs) in the last month or so. (Municipal bonds are issued by state and local governments to fund infrastructure projects).… Read more

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Only here at Contrarian Outlook can we banter for an hour-plus about closed-end funds, utilities and oil dividends! This site is our sanctuary, my income friends.

I’m talking about our Contrarian Outlook 2024 Q2 VIP Webcast. Every quarter we fire up GoToWebinar and discuss the top high-yield stocks and bonds on my mind, along with your questions. A big thanks to my 1,151 subscriber friends who attended the meeting live.

On the call I fielded some questions about closed-end funds (CEFs) that we didn’t have time to cover. I said I’d read them all and, well, I did. So, let’s address them now.… Read more

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This market rally could roll right through the summer (so much for “Sell in May and go away!”), and we’ve got two sweet bond buys to play it.

That’s right, I said bonds because there are more bargains in bond land than in stocks right now. While stocks could keep floating higher, the last thing we want to do is chase this rally.

Instead, we’re going to ride along on the stock side of things. In bonds, though, the state of play is a bit different.

We’re going to list our two bond picks in order of appeal shortly, capping this article off with our top selection—an unsung closed-end fund (CEF) trading for 12% below its “true” value and yielding a stout (and tax-free) 5.8%.… Read more

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There’s a crop of outsized dividends out there that are absurdly underpriced—I’m talking 14%-off discounts here. And our opportunity to pounce has arrived.

I’m talking about municipal bonds, which, like corporate bonds, look set to bounce as the economy slows and interest rates top out—then start to move lower. As rates ease off, bond yields will dip, putting a lift under bond prices (as yields and prices move in opposite directions).

The upshot? AI-powered NASDAQ stocks will lose their luster, and bonds and bond proxies—including utilities and “munis”—will likely be the darlings of 2024.

Heck, even a modest decline in rates would be enough to boost these assets.… Read more

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As we head towards the most telegraphed recession in recent memory, US Treasuries are receiving a lot of attention. And rightfully so.

In recessions, interest rates go down. This boosts bond prices (which trade opposite rates).

But not all bonds are created equal—especially during recessions. Slowdowns tend to make the safest bonds the most attractive.

After all, it can be a slippery slope from slowdown to meltdown, so many investors prefer the safety of Treasuries. In 2008, for example, the S&P 500 sank 38% but US Treasuries rallied sharply. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) delivered a 28% gain for the year:

In 2008, T-Bonds Did Great 

I don’t think we’re in for a repeat of ’08, but this “buy Treasuries before a recession” trade has worked superbly since we called it in November.… Read more

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