Taper Tantrum Dividend Plays with 56% (More) Upside

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If I were a Federal Reserve official—and I were not currently under investigation for sketchy February 2020 trades—I’d really be tempted to “back up the truck” on key taper tantrum dividend stocks.

These obvious payout plays have already soared 56% or more year-to-date. But there’s more to come because their profits are being artificially suppressed by the Fed. (Yes, you read that right. The Fed money flood is boosting everything except for these laggards. For now.) Once this constraint is lifted—or even moderated a bit—their bottom lines are going to boom.

Today, the Fed is buying $80 billion in government bonds every month.… Read more

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The stock market goes up as well as down and, for whatever reason, it tends to swing wildly in September and October. With last Monday’s intraday price action, we saw our first 5% decline in a year.

The last time the S&P 500 fell by 5% or more was… this time last year.

Losing money isn’t fun. Then again, it is our job to make sure that paper losses stay on the page.

Historically speaking, this is a good month to go shopping. Last October, we locked in 7.3% to 10% dividends—and 51% total returns (in just 12 months!) soon followed.… Read more

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If you’re waiting for a pullback to put money to work, look no further than small caps.

Early last week, the S&P stopped the bleeding on a harrowing multi-day 2.9% decline. By midweek, “big cap” investors had recouped more than half of their losses.

Was that it? My guess is yes, that was a wrap on the market’s mini-drama for another month or two.

Our intrepid Federal Reserve continues to print a whole lot of cash, which serves to backstop any pullback. The Fed is still buying $120 billion in bonds per month, which adds up to “real money” after a while—nearly $1.5 trillion annually!… Read more

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Collecting dividends is fun. Doubling our money is even better.

From time to time, Mr. and Ms. Market will present us with a deal that includes payouts plus price upside. I’m talking about 50% to 100% returns from secure dividend payers.

These “dividend doubles” require a catalyst. Some event that, if it unfolds, would launch profits—and the firm’s stock price!

Higher interest rates are a compelling “catalyst bet” today. The 10-year Treasury yield tripled between August and April. We noted a few months back that the rate move was due for a breather, and that’s exactly what has unfolded with the benchmark rate briefly edging below 1.3% last week:

Time to “Buy the Dip” in Interest Rates?Read more

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On Sunday night, our old friend exclaimed to my wife and me: “How have you all been??”

It’d been, well, almost a year since we’d been to her bar. We had plenty to catch up on with our drink-slinging pal as we sipped and snacked. Back on the home front, our babysitter had recently resurfaced and appeared to have bedtime under control. It was nice to have a throwback evening, the type we all took for granted just 12 months ago.

In the interim, many income investors have, likewise, taken low long-term rates for granted. Not we contrarians, of course.… Read more

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