Well, that escalated quickly.
We contrarians have been ready for rising interest rates—and long-term rates have indeed begun the year with a moonshot.
The Federal Reserve has been a big buyer of US bonds since the spring of 2020. If it weren’t for this “whale” buying $80 billion in bonds per month, long rates would likely be higher already.
How much higher is anyone’s guess. But now that the Fed is “tapering” its monthly purchases from $80 billion all the way to zero, everyone is rushing to place bets. And income investors are speculating that a fair rate for the 10-year is higher than here.… Read more