Our 10%-Yielding Contrarian Play on Overdone Inflation Fears

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Look, this worry that inflation will stick around forever is ridiculously overblown. It’s only a matter of time before it settles out.

Heck, it’s already starting to happen: Last week’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) print for January—a fav of the Federal Reserve—tells the tale. The headline number came in at 2.8%, as expected. That’s still above the Fed’s 2% target.

But the core number of 2.4% (excluding more volatile categories like food and energy) was the lowest since February 2021.

We looked at one way to profit from overwrought fears last week: low-volatility dividend-payers like utilities and food makers. Many folks see these as “bond proxies.”… Read more

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This market bounce is strangling the payouts on everybody’s favorite ETFs. But it’s also given us a sweet setup to grab another group of funds kicking out big dividends, to the tune of 9%+ yields.

Even better, many of these funds—wallflowers to “popular-kid” ETFs—were left off the invite list for the 2023 market party. That means they’re (still) cheap today.

I know a 9% payout has a lot of appeal to most folks, with Treasury yields now down to around 4%, not too far above inflation.

And if your cash is stuck in an ETF, you’re getting a lame payout, well, almost all the time, but especially if you buy now: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)—which, as the name says, holds the entire S&P 500 index—yields a sorry 1.4% as I write this.… Read more

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If you don’t like these 8%, 9% and even 10%+ dividends, well, you’re not really an income investor.

That’s right. As I write, select closed-end funds (CEFs) yield 10.8%.

Ten. Point. Eight. Per. Cent!

We contrarians are locking in yields up to nearly 11%. When the market seas become choppy, we’ll stick to our script. Here it is, broken down in an 11-step playbook for these 8%, 9%, even 10.8% yields.

CEF Rule #1: Buy the Best 

Fixed-income behemoth DoubleLine runs some well-known big funds as well as smaller, lesser-known CEFs. There’s a raging dividend party in the ignored CEF corner of DoubleLine’s portfolio, with yields up to 10.8% via

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL).… Read more

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Raise your hand if you want to actively work for income in 2024.

(Please note your dividend strategist already has his pointer finger in the tip of his nose. Not it!)

Here at Contrarian Outlook, we prefer passive dividend income to active income, thank you very much. Because trading hours for dollars is, let’s just say it, such a drag.

A job? Tired. Dividends, meanwhile, are wired. Since ‘tis the season for resolutions, let’s discuss my top four to retire on dividends in 2024.

Dividend Resolution #1: Project Our Income

If you’re a serious dividend investor, I hope you took my advice last week and grabbed your risk-free trial to Income Calendar.… Read more

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If you don’t like these 10% and 12% dividends, well, you’re not really an income investor.

That’s right. As I write, select closed-end funds (CEFs) yield 12.8%.

Twelve. Point. Eight. Per. Cent!

Vanilla “investors” are panicking. Sentiment has hit washout levels. A short-term bottom is near, or perhaps already in.

We contrarians are staying calm and locking in the 10% and 12% yields. When the market seas become choppy, we stick to our script. Here it is, broken down in a 11-step playbook for these 10.1% to 12.8% yields.

CEF Rule #1: Buy the Best 

Fixed-income behemoth DoubleLine runs some well-known big funds as well as smaller, lesser-known CEFs.… Read more

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“Do you have cherries?” my buddy Ralph asked over the phone.

It was January 2021. Sports bars here in California were closed, so we naturally turned our backyard into one.

“No,” I replied. And sighed in an honest admission. “Only beer. Lots of beer.”

“No problem. I got ‘em.”

My buddy also had a mini-keg of delicious old-fashioneds. His creations were dangerously delicious. He’d begun making and aging fine adult beverages to pass time in the pandemic.

And the maraschino cherries he brought played no small role in his cocktail’s critical acclaim.

Is it five o’clock yet? Just kidding (mostly). We are talking about maraschinos in a dividend column because we finally have some bond funds worth cherry picking.… Read more

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Everyone hates bonds right now. Perfect—let’s buy this nifty 9.5% payer while it’s discounted!

Why the sale? A bearish narrative, of course. In 2023, we have a narrative for everything, after all.

Last week, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced it is softening “yield control” efforts for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs). Inflation is finally picking up in Japan, and the BOJ is still printing money to buy JGBs.

Ironic? Yes. But the BOJ, the money-printing addict, is finally admitting it has a problem. We can think of this as step two of a potential multi-step inflation recovery effort.… Read more

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“Coach Brett, how many points do I have?”

My star player, Captain K, was dominating the basketball game. He’d steal the ball, storm down the court, and drain the shot. Then retreat into a defensive position and do it all over again.

Two points after two points after two points. I’d have lost count if I had to count. Fortunately though, we weren’t keeping score.

Most leagues these days don’t keep score when the players are only five years old. The run is more important than the result.

But my man K knew he was “killing it,” as his dad told him from the sidelines!… Read more

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Retiring on dividends. It’s the income investors’ dream, right?

It sure beats working for the rest of our lives!

Check out this July 2023 income summary, courtesy of Income Calendar, a nifty tool we built to project dividend income. I loaded up a 10-stock portfolio, featuring popular payers we discuss in these pages:


Source: Income Calendar

This is an “equal opportunity” collection of both picks and pans. Please, don’t run out and buy Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) just for its impressive 12.2% annualized yield. Let the Nasdaq bubble pop, at least!

QYLD buys the Nasdaq index and sells covered calls to generate income.… Read more

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Our favorite high-yield bonds just hit a critical buying level. It’s time to make our move, and we’re going to give ourselves an edge by “cherry-picking” 10%+ yielding picks from the top bond minds on the planet.

And we’re going to pay nothing to do so!

The Titans of the Bond World Give Us Their Best Picks—for Free

I hate to hear people say the bond world is boring. If you’ve read about it, you know it’s packed with wild characters who’ve racked up massive fortunes.

You can’t talk about bonds without mentioning Bill Gross, the so-called “Bond King,” who basically invented the idea of trading bonds in the ’70s.… Read more

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