Fast Trading Profits via Secure Dividend Stocks? You Bet

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Fast Trading Profits via Secure Dividend Stocks? You Bet

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is scared. First, it was UK pension funds. Now, the entire banking system has liquidity issues.

Fourteen years of quantitative easing is a tough habit to break! We are one year into the Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary conditions.

Should we buy bargains? Or sell now and go shopping later?

Fellow contrarians want to know! Our Contrarian Outlook customer service line has been hot. Today, we’ll put on our short-term thinking caps and discuss your dividend trading questions.

Q: Do you see any good buys among the regional banks where the “baby got thrown out with the SVB bathwater?”… Read more

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This Safe 4% Bond Yield is a “Best Recession Bet”

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 4% bond yield a “best recession bet.”

Why are we talking bonds when, over the past 18 months, they have all been crushed? Well, that’s the reason. The cure for poor bond performance is the high yields that are now staring us in the face. We look forward, not backward.

If you took our cue and used cash under your mattress as a bond proxy lately, then you are sitting pretty. Because now, we finally have attractive fixed-income yields!

Granted, safety is the key here. Remember, we are picking an economic slowdown as our catalyst.… Read more

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5 Easy Steps to Retire Early on $500K

$500K can be enough money to retire on. Even as early as age 50!

The trick is to convert the pile of cash into cash flow that can pay the bills. I’m talking about $35,000 to $40,000 per year or more in dividend income on that nest egg, thanks to 7% and 8% yields.

These are passive payouts that show up every quarter or, better yet, every month. Meanwhile, we keep that $500K nest egg intact. Or, better yet, grind that principal higher steadily and safely.

Got more in your retirement account? Cool—more monthly dividend income for you!

We’ll talk specific stocks, funds and yields in a moment.… Read more

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This Fund Pays 12.8%, Will Dish 13 Dividends in 2023

Last week in these pages we sang the praises of bond god Jeffrey Gundlach. His DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL) looked poised to pop:

DSL investors have three ways to win here. First, the fund pays an electric 11.5% yield. Next, its NAV is likely to rise as both short and long rates decline. And finally, the fund trades today at a 4% discount, which means we are getting paid to ride shotgun with Gundlach.

DSL: 3 Ways to Win (Last Week’s View)

We also discussed that DSL dishes its dividend monthly. Which is almost 1% every 30 days! Unheard of.… Read more

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Tomorrow’s Bond Headlines, Today, Right Here

“Get tomorrow’s Bloomberg headline, today, at Contrarian Outlook!”

Our new slogan for 2023? Perhaps. I bring it up because our bond recession trade has already gained steam into an outright bandwagon.

Just three weeks ago, we contrarians shouted alone in the dividend woods. “Buy these safe bonds paying 4.2% before a 2023 recession!”

Our logic was simple. The 10-year Treasury bond hadn’t paid 4% or more in 14 years. With stocks looking shaky (to say the least!), the 4-handle coupon was attracting some whale buyers, including our man the “bond god” Jeffrey Gundlach (more on him in a moment).… Read more

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SEC Yield Calculation (and Why It’s Better Than TTM Yield)

“Hey Brett. How’s the weather out there in California?”

My usual reply is “warm and sunny.” Simple. Gives the asker what they expect and keeps the pleasantries moving along.

If I was one for small talk, I would be tempted to mix in a confusing and way-too-detailed response. Like this:

“The weather? Well, Sacramento hit a low of 27 degrees in the early morning hours of February 24. And we cooked at an extreme 116 degrees on September 6. It has been quite the 12 months!”

Twelve months? Who cares about 12 months? Well, bond funds do.

Last week, we highlighted the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): “It (TLT) boasts a 4.1% yield and has some serious upside potential.”… Read more

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These Safe Bonds Pay 4.2%: Buy Before 2023 Recession

One week ago, money-printer-turned-inflation-hawk Jay Powell told the world he was going to keep hiking interest rates. And more than he thought his Federal Reserve needed just two months ago.

Yes, even higher interest rates. Obviously more bad news for bonds, right?

It depends. Let’s explore the second level take, because Jay’s outlook is actually bullish for a select slice of fixed income.

Our inspiration, as always, is renowned value investor Howard Marks, chief of Oaktree Capital Group, with $164 billion under management. Marks’ writing has won acclaim from legendary peers such as Joel Greenblatt, Jeremy Grantham, Seth Klarman and even Warren Buffett.… Read more

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The Cheapest 8.8% Dividend on the Planet

The Bank of England has recently aroused financial animal spirits with its on and off and on again buying of long-dated bonds. Which has this 8.8% payer—and more like it—ready to rally like crazy.

But wait, isn’t this a bear market? Brett, the financial media is telling me that interest rates are going to the moon. And that my cheap bonds are about to get even cheaper.  

They don’t call us contrarians for nothing! It’s our job, as original thinkers, to identify inflection points in the market. And we have one that is setting up for a big bond bounce.… Read more

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The Best Bonds to Buy in a Recession

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 3.8% bond yield a “best recession bet.”

Why are we talking bonds in a year where they have all been crushed? Well, that’s the reason. The cure for poor bond performance is the high yields that are now staring us in the face. We look forward, not backward.

If you took our cue and used cash under your mattress as a bond proxy for the year, then you are sitting pretty. Because now, we finally have attractive fixed-income yields!

Granted, safety is the key here. Remember, we are picking an economic slowdown as our catalyst.… Read more

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Did the Stock Market Bottom Last Week?

Have we seen the lows yet?

Well, we’re oversold and due for a rally. Overdue, really. (Stop me if you’ve heard this before…)

Assuming we get a bounce, I’m still inclined to sell any rips higher that we see.

Someday we’ll buy this dip. Heck, we’ll back up our dividend truck. I just don’t think it’s time yet.

First, I’d like to see market breadth begin to improve under the surface. This is often what typically happens before markets bottom. We see individual stocks begin to “act better” than the Dow or S&P. These leaders quietly establish their lows and begin to rally.… Read more

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