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I’ve come to the conclusion that in roughly March of 2008, the general tide shifted from inflation to deflation for the first time since World War II. Since that shift, everything we have seen has been pretty much deflationary. Oil is half of where it was about a year ago. Ditto for corn and soybeans. […]
It’s been a manic start to the week for commodities and currencies…deflation was “back” yesterday, with investors running back to the dollar…and today inflation was the focus, with the dollar getting dumped! Last evening, we observed that sugar was standing tall amidst an across the board selloff in commodities. Well today, that strength carried through […]
Buy and hold. Stocks for the long run. Diversify. These investment mantras were gospel during the great bull market of the 80s and 90s. Drinking this Kool-Aid will get you slaughtered today. There is no freaking way I would “buy and hold” anything right now. Too dangerous. Buy and hold hasn’t worked over the past […]
Apparently, most of China’s recent purchases on the commodity markets have been to build up stockpiles, rather than satisfy actual demand – according to The Daily Crux. That means the huge Chinese buying is unlikely to continue, and that in turn means commodity prices may be unable to sustain their recent advance. As for the […]
Daily Crux Editor Brian Hunt reports that bullish sentiment for gold in investment newsletters is very high – “near extreme levels that marked the previous three tops in gold.” When everyone is bullish, that’s trouble for longs…at least in the short term. Need another data point? How about an insurance company hopping on the gold […]
The rally in the Australian looks poised to continue, as their central bank left interest rates unchanged – which preserves the large yield premium the Aussie still enjoys over most other major currencies. Here’s the breakdown from legendary currency analyst Chuck Butler: Down Under… The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged (good for […]
Take a minute to think about your view of human history, and our continued progression as a species. Do you believe human history is linear…always getting better…onward and upwards to a better existence? Is it chaotic…stuff happens, people react, then more stuff happens…but there’s no pattern to it? Or…is human history cyclical…with those who neglect […]
Despite record harvests last year, corn and wheat stocks are still sitting near 30-year lows. Which means, anything short of a bumper crop could send the grains skywards once again. Here are some very cool charts, courtesy of Chris Mayer at DailyWealth, that depict the stocks-to-use ratios of of wheat and corn since 1970, versus […]
Regular readers know that we’ve been anxiously awaiting the decoupling of commodities and currencies from stocks. These asset classes are historically uncorrelated. That changed late last year when the financial world ended, and everything went down the crapper at about the same speed. Except, of course, the US dollar and bonds…but I digress… Today stocks […]
The biggest investing mistake I ever made was not getting out of commodities during the Great Deleveraging of ’08/’09. I had a pretty good beat on the major trends – stocks were highly vulnerable, the US could be in for some very bad things, etc – but I failed to project the effect that […]
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