I hope you had a good, long holiday weekend. I sure did…I mentioned at the end of the week that I’d be blogging when I wasn’t drinking beer. As you can probably infer from my lack of posts, I managed to put back a few with some good friends!
Back in the saddle now, I listened (twice, actually) to a fantastic interview and inflation/deflation debate as Jim Puplava chatted with Robert Prechter on his Financial Sense Newshour. Here’s the link to the interview: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Note: It’s the September 5, 2009 post that you want to look for. And as a bonus, he also interviewed Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning! I’ve got that one next on my iPod, and will do a post on that afterwards.
Despite gold approaching $1,000, and the equity markets rallying north of 50% over the past few months, Prechter is holding strong to his deflationary stance. In fact, he goes as far as to say he can’t see a hole in the deflationary argument!
Listening to Prechter’s answers, I have to say it’s real tough to poke a hole in his line of reasoning, which is always very thorough, and usually contrary to popular opinion.
- Prechter actually called the Fed’s actions “fairly conservative” – not quite as conservative as the 30’s, but conservative nonetheless.
- He believes that the Fed can do NOTHING to prevent deflation. Basically, because we have a credit bubble. And as that credit goes away to money heaven, even if the Fed were to print the money to replace it, at best that would be a wash.
- The core of his argument is that most debt outstanding will go unpaid. The lenders are carrying the value of this debt on their books at values that are not realistic. He says in 2007, the world woke up to the fact that these debts will go unpaid, triggering the onset of deflation.
- He’s not at all concerned with the current rally – in fact, he predicted it (I can vouch for that – I’ve been a subscriber of his since the spring).
- Prechter is not quite as bearish on gold as he’s been in the past. In fact, he admitted it will likely strike a new high during this move. He also now thinks that gold will hold up better than most assets, and even recommends a GoldMoney account for diversification purposes.
- He’s looking at 2010 to be a huge year for deflation.
- When Puplava asked for a historical example of a fiat currency of a debtor nation that did not suffer from inflation or hyperinflation, Prechter cited four examples of credit bubbles in history, saying that everytime a credit bubble ends, it results in deflation (with Japan being the most recent example).
- Prechter posits the question: if inflation is a threat and a repeat of the 70’s, why aren’t interest rates at 5, 10, 15%?
- He also says that social mood has permanently turned towards a deflationary mindset. Thus, the Fed is “pushing on a string”, and zero interest rates will not reinflate anything (a la Japan). (Brett note: I read a similar social mood comment about the Great Depression, that inflation “did not take” despite the Fed’s best efforts, because of investor’s mindsets).
I’d highly recommend you set aside an hour of your time to listen to this interview. Puplava’s a super sharp investor, and also currently in the inflation camp – so he tosses a lot of good questions towards Prechter.
As you probably know, I’ve been in the deflationary camp for the past couple of months – though I am always rechecking my assumptions.
It really feels like this whole inflation/deflation debate is going to come to a head soon. Prechter believes the next wave down will be more powerful than the first, and also that it will be quite soon…as soon as now.
On the other side of the fence, we’ve got gold making a solid run at $1,000 (and I’m wiping the egg off my face right now from selling out in June). And some really sharp gurus predicting hyperinflation and insisting that the rally has been driven by printed money – as evidenced by the fact that bank stocks have led the charge, and they are usually the first to lead in inflationary wave.
Actually I find it interesting that since March, Prechter’s script has been identical to that of the inflationist point of view. The inflationists say the rally is being led by the banks, which is typical. It will then spill over into other areas (gold, etc), and away we go. Prechter and his guys, on the other hand, say that this rally was due to happen, but it’s a false hope, being driven by crap (banks, etc), and it’s about run it’s course.
So we seem to be at a fork in the road of sorts. The next turn may be the game decider! We’ll stay tuned in for more clues here.