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Volatility on the S&P is nowhere to be seen these days – perhaps the market crash was merely a figment of our imaginations! The VIX is low, and it continues to head lower. (Source: Yahoo Finance) As you can see from our experience in 2008, when the VIX breaks out, it breaks out in a […]
Who in their right mind Would want to be long right now? Get out or get short! Why the Markets Could All Crash – Soon Investing is a largely probabilistic endeavor. It’s nearly impossible to know exactly how the future will unfold, so instead we play the probabilities, in an effort to weigh the risk […]
Not too much new here Just a bear market rally On it’s last hurrah! One Last Hurrah for the Bull! Had family in town this weekend, hence the late post, but there’s really not much going on anyway. This current rally feels like a last gasp countertrend rally that’s just about out of steam. Where […]
Sovereign debt – all crap Who could have expected this? Socialism’s toast! Contrarian Valentine’s Day While I’m tempted to wish you a Happy Valentine’s day, dear reader, I have no doubt that you won’t be running with the herd tonight for dinner and a dozen roses. No sir, not here – when my wife insinuated […]
The “reflation” trade Just a standard retracement? The bear may be back! They Are Still “All the Same Markets” Like many of our astute readers, I was not impressed by the reflation trade. While the strength of the rally was indeed quite substantial, when you sum it up, it was a mirror image of the […]
The trend is your friend But it’s still a bear market So the trend is down! Closing in on the 200-Day Moving Average Last week, I mused that I thought the markets had turned down, but that we’d need to respect the moving average before being 100% sure. We’re not there yet…but we’re gaining ground […]
Fear – have you returned? The markets forgot ’bout you Have we hell to pay? NFL: Both Public Teams Cover I’m a day late publishing the weekly update this week, partially thanks to the NFL conference championship games. I normally write on Sundays, but instead devoted yesterday to three great American pastimes – gambling, drinking […]
Happy New Year…and New Decade! Let’s dive into some of the top investment themes to keep an eye on in 2010…but first, a haiku: 09 Reflation Can it continue for long? Dollar may foil! 1. The US Dollar: The Linchpin The dollar, which topped out in early March roughly around the time the stock market […]
With the markets at a potential inflection point (an inflection point down, in my humble opinion), I thought it’d be fun and instructive to revisit a topic we’ve noodled on a bit lately. Does News Actually Drive the Financial Markets? It’s common knowledge that increasing earnings drive stock prices – with the only caveat being […]
Mark Twain famously said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Several weeks ago I observed that we appeared to be exactly on the pace with 1930. From the stock markets furious rally, to the Fed generating inflation fears, to the self-congratulatory economic comments of leaders proclaiming “the worst is over”…it all seemed to […]
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