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Thanks to good friend and fellow deflationist Carson for sending along the latest CPI numbers, which were released this morning. Inflation? Where? On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Take away food and energy, and the deflation […]
It took the market exactly ONE trading day to catch on to our contrarian minded (and thoughtful) opinion of Europe’s bailout plan – that is, that the plan is a complete joke, and is nothing more than merely kicking the can down the road. Stocks and oil both dropped today after starting the day up […]
Here’s my understanding of the Greece bailout plan that was passed today. It’s nearly $1 trillion. It should stabilize Greece for now – credit default swaps on Greek debt tumbled on the news – though from Greece’s perspective, it’s hard to see how this is anything more than “kicking the can down the road”, as […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
Yesterday we mused that a turning point may be appearing in the markets, as indicated by the negative divergences that are popping up. In a rare act of God, we were right! Well, at least for a day. And they’ll never be able to take that away from us. Stocks, commodities, and just about everything […]
Asset prices are continuing to decouple, slowly but surely, it appears. Today, equities and energy were up big – while the rest of the commodity sectors had a bad case of “The Mondays”: Why is this potentially significant? Because markets have been moving more or less in tandem for 5 or 6 years now – […]
While oil has been on a tear during the reflation rally, it’s cousin natural gas has not received the same love from traders. “The Natty”, which currently is languishing around $4, couldn’t be hated more, writes Steve Sjuggerud for DailyWealth: Specifically, right now, there are more bets against natural gas by large speculators than there […]
Milton Friedman said that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Judging by the recent price action in many of the soft and agricultural commodities, they appear to agree. Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is making a bet the Friedman was wrong. Bernanke believes that because Friedman did much of his […]
Tom Dyson reports that Natural Gas is now below its cost of production – after having fallen all the way down to $3.50 at a recent low point (sitting currently at $4.31). Dyson urges readers to “get long” now: I expect the rise in gas prices is imminent. Gas prices track oil prices. Oil has […]
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