The ghost town that is the S&P 500 continues its inexorable march to the sky, driven by about 9 traders flipping shares back and forth.
Now we’ve hit an interesting point, with the S&P kissing its upper resistance line once again, and most market observants quite giddy with bullishness:
Will 1130 hold? Nobody knows for sure – but with two failed attempts, and one more on the way (backed up by zero volume, thus far), I am inclined to think that the risk of an imminent downturn are greater than the odds of a further push upwards.
It’s probably an attractive time to look at a speculative short-term short position – if you’re into that kind of thing. And in addition to the seemingly favorable odds, the risk/reward also looks pretty attractive, as any potential decline would likely be sharp and painful.
But, there are no guarantees, and since June, there are a lot of short positions that have gotten chopped to pieces. Most short term publications I read have been pulling their hair out over the past few weeks, declaring a nasty downturn to be imminent. I personally am starting to become cautious about my bearish outlook – which may be an indicator that the bounce is indeed over! 🙂