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Regular readers likely are casting a skeptical eye at the latest Greek bailout. When should we take this gift of respite to go short questionable European paper, and the euro itself, you ask? First let’s turn to one of our favorites, legendary hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, who spoke some sense into Barron’s Alan Abelson: […]
We’ve been watching the sovereign debt of Spain and Italy quite closely this year – and today, we saw the biggest fireworks yet. Our friend and correspondent Dr. Evil had astutely tipped us off to the significance of the debt on the balance sheets of Spain and Italy. While the world focused on Greece, these […]
Our daily Italy Debt Watch continues! Yields are once again hot, up another 5bps at I type (11:30am Pacific time). Italy 10-year yields are blowing up! (Source: Bloomberg) The most popular story on Bloomberg today features hedge funds piling into bets on the European debt crisis getting worse: Hedge funds that trade bonds and loans […]
Yields on Italy 10-year bonds are rocking and rolling once again today, up 12 bps as I type, over a 20 bps in the last two days! Source: Bloomberg Regardless of the rhetoric out of Brussels, the final arbiter of the sovereigns’ likeliness to make good on their obligations is the bond market. And right […]
It’s not quite Halloween yet, but some important European charts are starting to look pretty horrifying! (Hat tip Dr. Evil for making significant contributions to this story.) Let’s start with Italy, our favorite impending disaster, sporting a 120% debt-to-GDP, with enough total weight to take down the entire system. Italy’s economy has never really been […]
Our good friend and European bond expert/correspondent Dr. Evil sent in a note this morning about the big moves in Spain’s and Italy’s 10-year paper – which we’ve previously highlighted as the real elephants in the room (see: European Sovereign Debt Spread Breakouts Near). Dr. Evil writes that Spain 10-year yields are up BIG – […]
The folks at The Institutional Risk Analyst sat down with “EU financial mess expert” David Kotok, CEO of Cumberland, to discuss the ECB’s (shoddy) options, the Fed’s lack of credibility, and the looming risk of deflation for the West. Kotok: The question of credibility is a continuing problem. It all comes back to solvency. We […]
Charles Hugh Smith writes on his excellent Of Two Minds website that from 2008-2011, the US Federal government paid roughly $8.70 for every $1 gain in GDP. The Federal government borrowed and spent $6.1 trillion over the past four years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation’s GDP. That means we’ve borrowed […]
Ever get the urge to follow US Federal budget interest costs from the comfort of your own home? Now you can! Go dig out your bond vigilante hat, and have a blast with this fun Federal deficit interest rate calculator. Hat tip to our friend and correspondent Dr. Evil for sending this resource along.
Admitting the problem is the first step – and it appears Portugal is close to starting this 12-step program. The Financial Times reports: Portugal is in the midst of a political crisis following the resignation of the prime minister José Sócrates yesterday (24 March) following his parliament’s rejection of fresh spending and deficit cuts. Mr Sócrates […]
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