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Regular readers know that I’ve been anxious – TOO anxious – to short the S&P 500. The reflation rally was determined to “end when it ends” – and not a moment sooner. Although we are still trading above the magical 200-day moving average, I have to believe that the odds are that the current trend […]
We’ve been following the Chinese stock market closely, because over the last few years it’s been a “canary in the coal mine” for US equities. The fact that the Shanghai index actually peaked last August, and is now in the process of rolling over, should be a concern to anyone who is long US stocks. Follow […]
Spent part of my weekend reading Bob Prechter’s latest newsletter, which is always thought provoking. The folks on his team were kind enough to allow us to republish this article from the April issue of Bob’s Elliott Wave Theorist. In terms of technical and sentiment analysis, I think Prechter is second to none. He’s been […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
We’ve been watching Chinese stocks very closely for almost a year now, because the last time the markets all tanked, China led the way. Since retracing a standard fare Fibonacci amount of their previous losses, Chinese stocks actually put in a top last August, and since have been making an ominous set of “lower highs” […]
“Be fearful when others are greedy” – Warren Buffett Earlier this month, the VIX, a commonly used measure of stock market volatility, hit an 18-month low. We wrote at the time: As you can see from our experience in 2008, when the VIX breaks out, it breaks out in a big way. So a breakout on […]
About a month ago, Marc Faber told Bloomberg that we could easily see a correction of 20% if the S&P topped 1150 and approached 1200. Well, it seems like we’re just about there, so we’ll see how Faber’s near term musings fare in the weeks ahead. You can check out a video of Faber’s Bloomberg […]
Volatility on the S&P is nowhere to be seen these days – perhaps the market crash was merely a figment of our imaginations! The VIX is low, and it continues to head lower. (Source: Yahoo Finance) As you can see from our experience in 2008, when the VIX breaks out, it breaks out in a […]
Quantitative Easing Ends (At Least For Now) April 1st marked the end of the Fed’s renowned money printing program, also known as “Quantitative Easing” for those who prefer to stick their heads in the sand and ignore what’s actually happening. From The Daily Reckoning: Under the (QE) program, the Federal Reserve graciously bought $1.25 trillion […]
Checking in on Some Key Charts Major indices hit new recovery highs today, with the DOW hitting it’s highest mark in the last 18 months. Trading volume remains tepid, however – as you can see from this chart of the S&P 500, this recent rally appears to lack some conviction: Rallies have been occurring on […]
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