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Felix Zulauf – one-half of the nucleus of the Barron’s Roundtable – was tracked down for his mid-year take. He believes European markets are cheap – but not necessarily good buys… Adjusted for inflation, Italy trades at levels last seen in Mussolini’s era. Greece trades at 1.5 times the Shiller P/E ratio [the market’s current […]
Dollar UP. Everything else DOWN. Sound familiar! Forget Facebook – this is the real financial story. There has not been a lot of green on many screens of late, except for one castoff – the buck. Call it what you will – the best house in a bad neighborhood, the flight to safety – fact […]
Barron’s got a hold of Hugh Hendry to chat about his favorite topics – namely deflation, and shorting Asia! If you read our previous coverage of Hendry’s economic outlook, there’s not much new here, but it’s still probably worth a quick read. In summary, Hendry remains biased towards “hyperdeflation BEFORE hyperinflation”: The road to hyperinflation […]
How does our current recession (or more likely, soft depression) compare with the Great Depression? For an excellent account of the United States’ last go-round with economic collapse, I’d highly recommend The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth. Roth is a Youngstown, Ohio based attorney who details a compelling play-by-play of the Depression, spanning […]
Yahoo Tech Ticker just interviewed Gary Schilling, one of our “high priests” of deflation. Schilling has been right there along with Bob Prechter in calling for deflation many years before it became fashionable. And like Prechter, he’s getting to be quite the popular dude now that his predictions are coming to fruition. In this first […]
The Federal Reserve reported today that it will “roll over” principal payments on its mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury securities. Bloomberg reports: Federal Reserve officials will maintain their holdings of securities to prevent money from being drained out of the financial system in their first attempt to bolster the economy in more than a year. […]
Has any trade over the last few years frustrated more sophisticated investors than the “one-way” bet on rising long-term government interest rates? For the last 2 or 3 years, many (including myself) have been piling into ETFs (like TBT) that act as short proxies for rising long term interest rates. And the logic has been so sound, […]
Today Minyanville carried a piece entitled Seven ETFs to Play Deflation, which highlighted high dividend paying ETFs and interest paying bond funds. While I agree with the premise IF deflation is mild and US growth is merely slower than normal, I’d be cautious about the dividend funds if we see a wicked wave of deflation […]
Seems like somebody at the Wall Street Journal has been diligently reading their Contrary Investing Report! Today the Wall Street Journal piled onto the small but growing Deflation Nation Bandwagon, on the heels of warnings about deflation from Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross, and others: Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers […]
In Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly newsletter (which is always a must-read, IMHO), he says he’s throwing his hat in the deflation camp for the near future, at least: Well, I, for one, am more or less willing to throw in the towel on behalf of Inflation. For the near future at least, his adversary in […]
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