Gary Shilling’s Commentary From Last Weekend’s Altegris Hedge Fund Conference

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Courtesy of our good friend (and now intrepid roving reporter) Jonathan Lederer, here’s an exclusive scoop on Gary Shilling’s commentary from last week’s Altegris/John Mauldin Hedge Fund Conference in La Jolla. 1) Deleveraging has barely begun and will last for many more years due to the huge growth in credit since the 50s 2) He still […]

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The summer doldrums continue, as today registered the 2nd lowest trading volume of the year (Source: Reuters). As we’ve discussed, the last rally was rather uninspiring, displaying low and declining volume as the rally aged: Source: StockCharts.com The downsloping volume trendline was “broken” a bit by last week’s decline.  So while overall trading volume is […]

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Until today, bonds had been rallying in tandem with stocks for the last 3 months.  That’s a bit of a rarity – one that has historically preceded a stock market collapse or two. A couple of observations here – the first from David Rosenberg, courtesy of Pragmatic Capitalism: “The yield on the 10-year note hit […]

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Has any trade over the last few years frustrated more sophisticated investors than the “one-way” bet on rising long-term government interest rates? For the last 2 or 3 years, many (including myself) have been piling into ETFs (like TBT) that act as short proxies for rising long term interest rates.  And the logic has been so sound, […]

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Today Minyanville carried a piece entitled Seven ETFs to Play Deflation, which highlighted high dividend paying ETFs and interest paying bond funds. While I agree with the premise IF deflation is mild and US growth is merely slower than normal, I’d be cautious about the dividend funds if we see a wicked wave of deflation […]

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On Thursday I was en route to Montreal for a wedding, and as luck would have it, I received a phone call from Martin Mittelstaedt from Canada’s Globe and Mail.  Martin was working on a story about deflation investing for Saturday’s globe – a very well-timed piece given the latest CPI numbers, and Friday’s slaughter […]

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Courtesy of Pragmatic Capitalism: Is there a debt problem in the United States?  You better believe it.  But it’s not debt problem everyone is panicking over (the government deficit).  It’s at the private sector level.  This classic balance sheet recession has consumers saddled with debt.  Peter Cecchini, chief strategist at BGC Financial LP says there […]

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The recent stock market decline has not only been sharp – shedding the year’s worth of gains in a matter of weeks – but it’s also had some very impressive breadth. Bespoke Investment reports that just 4% of S&P 500 stocks current sit above their 50-day moving average.  So, everything is getting clobbered! The percentage […]

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Last night our Sacramento based Casey Research “Phyle” met to discuss the current investing landscape – which quite frankly appears to be littered with mostly landmines right now! (A couple of months back, our group talked about the scary potential for retirement plan confiscation, how to wire money to Central America, and other offbeat personal […]

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