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Yesterday afternoon, we closed our short S&P 500 futures position after hours, on the expectation that some sort of bounce was developing in the near term. If that’s what you call a bounce – it was pretty pathetic! What a lame-ass bounce! We’ll see what type of follow through we get tomorrow and Friday. That […]
After gapping WAY down at the opening bell, the S&P (and other indices) rallied throughout the day, slowly but steadily climbing back to even on the day. All-in-all a very respectable showing, as the first major test of support at 1050 for the S&P held. The S&P did set a new intraday low for 2010 […]
As I write this about 90 minutes before the closing well, markets opened lower and continue to languish, with declines slightly outpacing advances. This is only notable because markets are already severely oversold – at least by common metrics. So, while astute traders may have anticipated a bounce today, that has not yet materialized. I have […]
So far so good on that short S&P 500 position we initiated Wednesday afternoon via the futures market. We had a beautiful nosedive in equities yesterday – it was truly breathtaking, really – followed up by a somewhat muted rally that didn’t get going until late in today’s trading day. Heading into Thursday’s trading, the […]
Regular readers know that I’ve been anxious – TOO anxious – to short the S&P 500. The reflation rally was determined to “end when it ends” – and not a moment sooner. Although we are still trading above the magical 200-day moving average, I have to believe that the odds are that the current trend […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
Yesterday we mused that a turning point may be appearing in the markets, as indicated by the negative divergences that are popping up. In a rare act of God, we were right! Well, at least for a day. And they’ll never be able to take that away from us. Stocks, commodities, and just about everything […]
We’ve written a lot about the outlook for the Euro and the Eurozone recently, and any way we slice it, it sure doesn’t look good! Perhaps fellow contrarians David Galland and Kevin Brekke can find a silver lining to these dark storm clouds? Read on to learn more… *** The Euro Is Screwed By Kevin […]
Asset prices are continuing to decouple, slowly but surely, it appears. Today, equities and energy were up big – while the rest of the commodity sectors had a bad case of “The Mondays”: Why is this potentially significant? Because markets have been moving more or less in tandem for 5 or 6 years now – […]
The Chicago Board Options Exchange publishes a daily report detailing open put vs. call option positions of traders. Since this represents bets made on stock prices rising vs. falling in the near future, it’s an interesting gauge of sentiment. Today I pulled this data since 2004 from the CBOE’s website, and plotted the 200-day simple […]
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