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What a pathetic showing by the S&P 500. It’s been completely unable to rally despite an extremely oversold condition. Our original price target for the S&P rally was 1091-1123. We rallied into the lower end of that range, reversed, and that was it. When stocks can’t maintain a countertrend bounce (and also when that bounce […]
Here’s an update on the short term trend of the stock market. When this recent rally kicked off on May 27th, we took a shot at a short-term price target for the S&P 500: For my calculations, I’m saying that this decline began at 1173 on the S&P, and ended at the intra-day low of […]
A favorite exercise of mine is to take a look at the board and see what assets are not participating in strong rallies on days like today. And it looks like there were a few noticeable absentees in the commodity sector that did not make it for today’s raging campfire of a good time! (Ed. […]
Yesterday afternoon, we closed our short S&P 500 futures position after hours, on the expectation that some sort of bounce was developing in the near term. If that’s what you call a bounce – it was pretty pathetic! What a lame-ass bounce! We’ll see what type of follow through we get tomorrow and Friday. That […]
Regular readers know that I’ve been anxious – TOO anxious – to short the S&P 500. The reflation rally was determined to “end when it ends” – and not a moment sooner. Although we are still trading above the magical 200-day moving average, I have to believe that the odds are that the current trend […]
Spent part of my weekend reading Bob Prechter’s latest newsletter, which is always thought provoking. The folks on his team were kind enough to allow us to republish this article from the April issue of Bob’s Elliott Wave Theorist. In terms of technical and sentiment analysis, I think Prechter is second to none. He’s been […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
As if the largest stock market decline since October 2008 wasn’t enough to put the fear of God back into stock market bulls (and by the way, it was hilarious to see Matt Lauer once again shaking with financial fear on the Today Show this morning) – here’s another piece of bad news: This drop […]
Checking in on Some Key Charts Major indices hit new recovery highs today, with the DOW hitting it’s highest mark in the last 18 months. Trading volume remains tepid, however – as you can see from this chart of the S&P 500, this recent rally appears to lack some conviction: Rallies have been occurring on […]
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