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These days, diversification is pointless. You only need one position in your portfolio – because all the markets are trading together. To illustrate this point, check out this chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Dollar Index since Spring 2008: The dollar and S&P – mirror images of one another (click to enlarge). (Source: Google […]
I thought it’d be fun to peruse the Wall Street Journal to see if we could glean some insights into current investor sentiment. Mainstream business publications are famous for (unintentionally) signaling tops and bottoms in markets – but is this really the case, or more of an old wives tale than truth? I couldn’t think […]
I saw a familiar sight on the charts today – green for the dollar, and red for just about everything else. This was a very common sight last fall and winter. This currency picture, courtesy of Barchart.com, used to be an all-to-familiar one. Then when the famous “March 6” lows held, and spring sprung, we […]
Last Sunday I wrote that I thought it was time to go long the US dollar. Investor sentiment is near record low levels, which usually means the price has nowhere to go but up, at least in the short term. When making a contrarian pick like this, you usually prefer to see articles that take […]
Three weeks ago, we discussed the possibility the the dollar was bottoming and poised for a major rally. My reasoning was that: Sentiment was overwhelmingly negative on the buck. I noticed that even traditional contrarian investment sources appeared to be piling on. When there’s nobody left to sell, that’s usually a good sign that the […]
Interesting times in the markets. US equities have now completed a standard fare “Fibonacci retracement” off of the March 6 lows. Now, where to from here? Bulls and bears alike conceded that a strong rally was quite probable. Now that it’s happened, what can we expect? There seem to be two or three prevailing market […]
Here are a couple of very insightful video interviews with Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International: Part I – Prechter believes the dollar has bottomed, because of the formation in the Elliott Wave pattern, and also the extreme bearish sentiment we’re seeing. Part II – He explains his deflationary depression hypothesis and why he believes […]
The screens were flashing all green today, as our noted “all or nothing” trade resulted in everything moving up today! Except for? The dollar, of course! This screen shot from Barchart.com reflect a bull market in, well, everything! Of note, Treasuries were up today – who the heck is still buying these things? A mystery […]
It’s another “all or nothing” day in the markets – with equities down, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen are, of course, up. This time joined by – surprise – our old friend, the Australian dollar (ugh – got chased out of that position too early 🙁 ) Looking at a 6-month chart of the […]
I’ve come to the conclusion that in roughly March of 2008, the general tide shifted from inflation to deflation for the first time since World War II. Since that shift, everything we have seen has been pretty much deflationary. Oil is half of where it was about a year ago. Ditto for corn and soybeans. […]
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