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Yesterday I had the great honor and opportunity to sit courtside for a live one-hour presentation from our favorite contrarian, irreverent hedge fund manager – Hugh Hendry himself. What a thrill! Hendry, as you may know, is partner and Chief Investment Officer at Eclectica Asset Management. While his claims to fame are numerous, his two […]
David Rosenberg writes in today’s Breakfast With Dave that Obama was channeling Herbert Hoover during the State of the Union! A long-standing colleague and reader sent this off to me yesterday and it blew me away. Read on: Obama’s State of the Union: “Two years after the worst recession most of us have ever known, the […]
“Do something!” is a common refrain clueless voters and politician like to rally around when it comes to “fixing” our Humpty Dumpty economy. To which I usually protest: “No – don’t do anything!” Because government can only harm the economy by getting involved – as we’ve seen once again over the last three years. It’s […]
Here’s an insightful guest piece from James Quinn, who takes a look at the first Great Depression to separate the facts from fiction (and there’s no shortage of historical fiction about the Depression that is basically accepted without question as fact today). (And if you like this piece, you may also enjoy my lambasting of […]
Here’s an interesting debt deflation academic paper that our deflationist pal Carson sent along. It’s written by Steve Keen from University of Western Sydney. In the paper, Keen compares the debt deflation environment of the 1930’s with today. Abstract: My 1995 paper on modeling Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis concluded with thestatement that its “chaotic dynamics […]
This epic stock market rally has done exactly what it was supposed to do – it’s retraced about half of the losses from the previous crash. It’s got folks feeling comfortable again – while maybe not outright enthusiastic about things, they now believe the carpet is not going to be pulled out from under them. […]
Move along everyone, no depression to see here – so says Christina Romer, the White House’s chief economic adviser. Yes, the same adviser that recommended massive debasement of the US dollar to get us out of this mess. Christina Romer, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Tuesday evening the main difference between last […]
So is the money supply increasing, or not? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph writes that US credit is shrinking big time – at it’s fastest rate since…drumroll…the 1930’s. Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14% in the three months to August (from […]
Mark Twain famously said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Several weeks ago I observed that we appeared to be exactly on the pace with 1930. From the stock markets furious rally, to the Fed generating inflation fears, to the self-congratulatory economic comments of leaders proclaiming “the worst is over”…it all seemed to […]
Here’s a guest piece by Bud Conrad and David Galland from the Casey team, with an opportunity to check out their free report on the current state of the economy. As always, these two do a bang up job of looking under the hood of rosy government figures and media reports to get the real […]
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