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A Scottish financial historian with an S&P target price of 400? Be still, our beating hearts! CLSA’s Russell Napier is my new favorite – take a listen to his interview with Financial Sense’s Jim Puplava. He believes that QE2 has failed in terms of reigniting credit growth – at least here in the US. But […]
In a title near and dear to my weimaraner’s heart, Christopher Whalen penned an excellent inflation/deflation piece pontificating about the possibility of “Global Weimar”: The commercial channel at most banks we hear from is still running at 1/3 to 1/2 of pre-2008 levels in terms of new originations and demand for credit. This is why when […]
You’ve got to see it to believe it – Bernanke cites rising stock prices as evidence that QE2 was a success! Thus confirming what us armchair observers had suspected – the Fed is dedicated to keeping the stock market propped up – dollar and inflation be damned. John Mauldin had a great take on this […]
Overall credit, as measured by the quarterly Z1 report, turned up significantly in the 3rd quarter for the first time in a few quarters – does this mean the deflation threat passed? Fellow deflationist Vox Day is not impressed – he writes: So, while Z1 reports a quarterly increase of 0.43% in overall credit, the first […]
Another nice job by our buddy David Galland in this guest piece, as he takes a look at the relationship between huge (unpayable?) debt levels and interest rates, gold, and inflation. Of the many good points that David makes, the one that really got me thinking is the behavior of gold in a low interest […]
Superstar economist Steve Keen may not blog often as some other folks in finance – but when he does put something together, it’s usually awesome analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Steve’s latest post Deleveraging with a Twist takes a look at the latest deleveraging statistics in the US. He writes that the US is […]
Common knowledge is that the American consumer is now doing what he or she must do to confront life in the “New Normal” – that is, paying down debt diligently. This perception, though, appears to be a bit “overrated” – especially if you look at things like, well, the actual data. The WSJ reports that […]
Former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler, one of our favorites, believes that we are 3 years into a 7+ year consumer deleveraging cycle. Andy writes: The blue is actual through the first quarter of 2010. The red is trendline and the transparent blue box is my estimate for household debt to get back to trendline. […]
Today Minyanville carried a piece entitled Seven ETFs to Play Deflation, which highlighted high dividend paying ETFs and interest paying bond funds. While I agree with the premise IF deflation is mild and US growth is merely slower than normal, I’d be cautious about the dividend funds if we see a wicked wave of deflation […]
American consumer spending is a funny thing. For years, throughout much of the 00’s, we watched in amazements as the US consumer went on the greatest spending binge in the history of Planet Earth. First, we spent all the money we had. Then, we spent all the money we didn’t have. We borrowed against our […]
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