Former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler, one of our favorites, believes that we are 3 years into a 7+ year consumer deleveraging cycle. Andy writes:
The blue is actual through the first quarter of 2010. The red is trendline and the transparent blue box is my estimate for household debt to get back to trendline. You can download the data from this St. Louis Fed page.
More from Kessler: Expect a Yo-Yo Rangebound Market