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We’ve been following the financial sector throughout the entire “reflation rally”, figuring that a breakdown in financial stocks may precede a breakdown in the broader market. Financials led the way down in 2007, and they led the way up in 2009 – so can they threepeat and lead the way down once again here in […]
On Tuesday, Seeking Alpha published a “timely” piece that I penned entitled 3 Reasons This Rally Is Toast – just in time to see markets rally over 2% on the day! The article generated a significant amount of buzz on the site – in fact, as I write this Wednesday afternoon, it’s currently the second most […]
Regular readers know that I’ve been anxious – TOO anxious – to short the S&P 500. The reflation rally was determined to “end when it ends” – and not a moment sooner. Although we are still trading above the magical 200-day moving average, I have to believe that the odds are that the current trend […]
Spent part of my weekend reading Bob Prechter’s latest newsletter, which is always thought provoking. The folks on his team were kind enough to allow us to republish this article from the April issue of Bob’s Elliott Wave Theorist. In terms of technical and sentiment analysis, I think Prechter is second to none. He’s been […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
Checking in on Some Key Charts Major indices hit new recovery highs today, with the DOW hitting it’s highest mark in the last 18 months. Trading volume remains tepid, however – as you can see from this chart of the S&P 500, this recent rally appears to lack some conviction: Rallies have been occurring on […]
Another up day for equities, and investors appear to be feeling pretty good about things. According to the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, investors haven’t felt this upbeat about things since January: Investors have been feeling on the up and up of late. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Unfortunately investor bullishness is a classic contrarian indicator […]
Who in their right mind Would want to be long right now? Get out or get short! Why the Markets Could All Crash – Soon Investing is a largely probabilistic endeavor. It’s nearly impossible to know exactly how the future will unfold, so instead we play the probabilities, in an effort to weigh the risk […]
Not too much new here Just a bear market rally On it’s last hurrah! One Last Hurrah for the Bull! Had family in town this weekend, hence the late post, but there’s really not much going on anyway. This current rally feels like a last gasp countertrend rally that’s just about out of steam. Where […]
Sovereign debt – all crap Who could have expected this? Socialism’s toast! Contrarian Valentine’s Day While I’m tempted to wish you a Happy Valentine’s day, dear reader, I have no doubt that you won’t be running with the herd tonight for dinner and a dozen roses. No sir, not here – when my wife insinuated […]
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