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Gary Shilling weighed in with his recommendations for 2011 in John Mauldin’s latest Outside the Box newsletter. Since the early 2000’s, Shilling has been one of very few financial commentators staunchly in the deflation camp – and his 2011 picks reflect his belief that deflation, not inflation, will rule the years ahead. We look for […]
You can run, you can rally on low volume, but ultimately you can’t hide from deflation! Today the Deflation Bird digested and ultimately pooped on the lame FOMC statement issued yesterday. It will take more than that, says our feathered friend, to stave off the ravages of deflation. It was one of those now “all […]
Has any trade over the last few years frustrated more sophisticated investors than the “one-way” bet on rising long-term government interest rates? For the last 2 or 3 years, many (including myself) have been piling into ETFs (like TBT) that act as short proxies for rising long term interest rates. And the logic has been so sound, […]
Today Minyanville carried a piece entitled Seven ETFs to Play Deflation, which highlighted high dividend paying ETFs and interest paying bond funds. While I agree with the premise IF deflation is mild and US growth is merely slower than normal, I’d be cautious about the dividend funds if we see a wicked wave of deflation […]
On Thursday I was en route to Montreal for a wedding, and as luck would have it, I received a phone call from Martin Mittelstaedt from Canada’s Globe and Mail. Martin was working on a story about deflation investing for Saturday’s globe – a very well-timed piece given the latest CPI numbers, and Friday’s slaughter […]
Today, US stocks were not successful in issuing a counterpunch to yesterday’s bloodbath, when there were 11 stocks down for every 1 up. Stocks staged a meager rally after opening – only to swoon late and close at new lows for 2010. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 peaked in […]
The deflation camp may not be well populated, but I have to say that I really dig the few economists and analysts that are sympathetic to the deflation argument. Perhaps it’s just because we all smoke the same lettuce – but I prefer to think there’s more to it than that 🙂 One of our […]
It’s looking more and more apparent by the day that deflation is returning to the financial markets – and with a vengeance. Yes sir, deflation is back – it’s out to kick ass and chew bubble gum, and apparently it has just run out of gum! The reflation trade is being exposed as the fraud we […]
Regular readers know that while we are more sympathetic to the deflation argument, at least in the near term, we keep our ears open to the inflation camp as well. And that’s not hard to do, as some inflation believers become quite hostile at the mere muttering of deflation! For my money, the guy with […]
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