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Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
Asset prices are continuing to decouple, slowly but surely, it appears. Today, equities and energy were up big – while the rest of the commodity sectors had a bad case of “The Mondays”: Why is this potentially significant? Because markets have been moving more or less in tandem for 5 or 6 years now – […]
The Chicago Board Options Exchange publishes a daily report detailing open put vs. call option positions of traders. Since this represents bets made on stock prices rising vs. falling in the near future, it’s an interesting gauge of sentiment. Today I pulled this data since 2004 from the CBOE’s website, and plotted the 200-day simple […]
We’ve been watching Chinese stocks very closely for almost a year now, because the last time the markets all tanked, China led the way. Since retracing a standard fare Fibonacci amount of their previous losses, Chinese stocks actually put in a top last August, and since have been making an ominous set of “lower highs” […]
Checking in on Some Key Charts Major indices hit new recovery highs today, with the DOW hitting it’s highest mark in the last 18 months. Trading volume remains tepid, however – as you can see from this chart of the S&P 500, this recent rally appears to lack some conviction: Rallies have been occurring on […]
Milton Friedman said that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Judging by the recent price action in many of the soft and agricultural commodities, they appear to agree. Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is making a bet the Friedman was wrong. Bernanke believes that because Friedman did much of his […]
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