Today, Bloomberg reported that the Japanese Yen dropped today against the dollar, euro, and Swiss franc as Japan posted its first trade deficit in 13 years.
“The poor Japanese trade-deficit data are giving further fuel to the idea that Japan, or the yen, is no longer the safe haven as the country’s external position deteriorates,” said Adam Cole, London-based head of global currency strategy at the Royal Bank of Canada.
I mentioned to Chris Gaffney last week, that I had been seeing more yen selling coming across the trading desk than I had seen in a long time. I said that these people, if they had held it long enough, were probably taking profits. And why not? In this day an age with deflationary pricing pushing most assets downward, when you see a profit, you take it!
The guy known as “Mr. Yen”, Sakakibara, told the press last night that he believed yen may rise to a record 70 VS the dollar… WOW! He also said that it would range trade between 100 and 70… He believes that the yen will be afforded the same kind of love the dollar has received since the financial crisis began in the U.S. With Japan posting a large economic contraction last week, Mr. Yen, is of the opinion that it will help the currency gain to 70.
Hmmm… I just don’t know about all that… For one, I’m not convinced the flight to safety that has underpinned the dollar with buying of Treasuries, will be duplicated in Japan… And two… The only thing I saw pushing the yen stronger in 2008 was the unwinding of the Carry Trade, which I said had come to end about a month ago. So… There you have it… I don’t like yen’s chances to go to 70, but do agree that it could hold 100… It’s darn close to 99 as I type…