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John Hussman expresses deep concern about stocks at current valuation levels in his latest (excellent) piece. Contrary to what’s reported in mainstream financial media, stocks are actually quite expensive by all historical standards he says. Present market risks involve a confluence of factors. First, valuations remain unusually rich. Though prospective returns are better than at […]
First, we turn to Peter Schiff, who tells Yahoo Tech Ticker that he expects China will need to unpeg its currency in order to fight inflation. Raising rates alone won’t do it, he says, because they’ll still be importing too many of our quantitatively eased dollars. Source: Yahoo Finance – Tech Ticker, January 24, 2011. […]
Courtesy of John Hussman: The U.S. fiscal position is far worse than our present $1.3 trillion deficit and nearly 100% debt/GDP ratio would suggest. On the deficit side, there is certainly a “counter-cyclical” pattern to the U.S. federal deficit. As I noted a few weeks ago, every 1% shortfall of real GDP from potential (as […]
Continuing on our theme from yesterday that investor sentiment has reached an extreme level of jubilation, John Hussman writes that we’ve now reached the pantheon of “awful times to invest”: In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last […]
Excellent commentary from John Hussman (as usual) in his most recent weekly piece. On expected returns based on dividend yields (yes, THAT barbaric measure of value): Our estimates for S&P 500 total returns remain below 5% at every horizon shorter than a decade. One can argue that 5% is “attractive” relative to less than 3% […]
David Rosenberg wrote today in his daily commentary that earnings expectations peaked with the stock market back in April. He observes that this is a common phenomenon – where stock prices do not follow earnings, but rather they more closely track earnings expectations. When expected earnings are revised up by analysts, stocks rally – and […]
Last week we reported that acclaimed fund manager John Hussman wrote that he believed the S&P overvalued by 40%. In his latest newsletter, Hussman revisits the fundamental valuation of US equities – with a couple of interesting ratios and charts as well. Hussman writes: I can’t emphasize enough that when you hear an analyst say […]
Some bulls are claiming the S&P is now cheap by historical standards (ironically after a record rally in stocks that made them more expensive!) Their shouts of bullish fundamentals are erroneous, according to acclaimed fund manager John Hussman. In his latest market commentary, Hussman writes: On a valuation basis, the S&P 500 remains about 40% […]
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