Top posts from the past week:
- Financial Times: Wealthy Investors Demanding Unprecedented Amounts of Physical Gold
- Jim Rogers on CNBC 10/1/08
- Quick Thoughts on the Latest Black Monday
A review of my trades from the week that was:
- Closed out my Swiss Franc position – Yikes – this trade did not work out, I got hammered big-time. The Swissie was up big on Black Monday as the carry trade unwound…but probably not as big as it should have been. That should have been a cue for me to get out, but I hung in until around the 0.90 mark and got out.
Other existing positions I’ve got:
- Long the Japanese Yen – The Yen was way up early in the week as the carry trade was unwound in a big way on Black Monday. Then it came back down to Earth – but all in all, another impressive week in the face of continued (surprising?) strength from the US dollar.
- Long Gold – Very tough week for gold, but as we’ve discussed in this space before, I believe the government’s printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher. And not to sound like too much of a broken record here – but how long can spot prices stay low, when you can’t buy the physical stuff?
- Short Soybeans – Soybean futures broke down in a big way this week. I plan to stay the course as a short.
- Short 10-Year Treasuries – I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can’t imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates. Anyone care to finance a $700 billion bailout plan, by the way?
My wish list (waiting for an uptrend…and we could be waiting for awhile):
- Natural Gas
|Date||Position||Qty||Month/Yr||Contract||Entry Price||Last Price||Profit/Loss|
|09/04/08||Long||1||DEC 08||Japanese Yen||0.9340||0.9553||$2,662.50|
|09/24/08||Short||1||MAR 09||T-Note (10yr)||113-245||114-315||($1,218.75)|
|09/17/08||Long||1||DEC 08||Mini Gold||864.6||839.0||($849.92)|
|09/09/08||Short||1||NOV 08||Mini Soybeans||1168 1/4||989||$1,792.50|
|Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:||$2,386.33|
|Current Cash Balance||$50,397.12|
|Open Trade Equity||$2,386.33|
|Long Option Value||$0.00|
|Short Option Value||$0.00|
|Net Liquidating Value||$52,783.45|
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,783.45
Weekly return: -6.0%
YTD return: -5.2%
***”Cash out” mostly means taxes, but lately I’ve also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a software startup I’m working on.