My Current Commodity Futures Positions – 10/05/08

My Current Commodity Futures Positions – 10/05/08

Top posts from the past week:


A review of my trades from the week that was:

  • Closed out my Swiss Franc position – Yikes – this trade did not work out, I got hammered big-time. The Swissie was up big on Black Monday as the carry trade unwound…but probably not as big as it should have been. That should have been a cue for me to get out, but I hung in until around the 0.90 mark and got out.

Other existing positions I’ve got:

  • Long the Japanese Yen – The Yen was way up early in the week as the carry trade was unwound in a big way on Black Monday. Then it came back down to Earth – but all in all, another impressive week in the face of continued (surprising?) strength from the US dollar.
  • Long Gold – Very tough week for gold, but as we’ve discussed in this space before, I believe the government’s printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher. And not to sound like too much of a broken record here – but how long can spot prices stay low, when you can’t buy the physical stuff?
  • Short Soybeans – Soybean futures broke down in a big way this week. I plan to stay the course as a short.
  • Short 10-Year Treasuries – I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can’t imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates. Anyone care to finance a $700 billion bailout plan, by the way?

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend…and we could be waiting for awhile):

  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver

Open Positions

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
09/04/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Japanese Yen 0.9340 0.9553 $2,662.50
09/24/08 Short 1 MAR 09 T-Note (10yr) 113-245 114-315 ($1,218.75)
09/17/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Mini Gold 864.6 839.0 ($849.92)
09/09/08 Short 1 NOV 08 Mini Soybeans 1168 1/4 989 $1,792.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $2,386.33

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $50,397.12
Open Trade Equity $2,386.33
Total Equity $52,783.45
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $52,783.45

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,783.45

Weekly return: -6.0%
YTD return: -5.2%

***”Cash out” mostly means taxes, but lately I’ve also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a software startup I’m working on.

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