Demographics are Screaming "Deflationary Depression!" Here’s Why…

This week I caught another fascinating interview on the Financial Sense Newshour – with Harry S. Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead.

OK, so what’s so insightful about a guy publishing a next Great Depression in 2009? Well when it comes from the same guy that published The Great Boom Ahead in 1992, I definitely give his depression calls some credence!

I love guys who can call booms and busts. There aren’t many of them. Most investment analysts seem to have a bullish or bearish slant that, ultimately, sways their outlook.

Harry S. Dent seems to be pretty even keel. He made the case in ’92, and again earlier this decade, that the US boom would last longer, and go much farther, than anyone would anticipate. Why? Demographics.

By studying America’s demographics, Dent concluded that baby boomers would keep on spending, and driving the economy, until the latter part of this decade. I recall reading an article by him in 2004, where he made the case that the boom was going to last for at least a few more years. I thought the guy was nuts at the time! I was still waiting for the ’00-’02 correction to continue.

Well, Dent called it. And now he’s turning bearish. He sees a lot of dark clouds coming together at the same time, as the US descends into what he deems will be a long “economic winter.”

Japan, Dent says, suffered the same fate. Japan’s 1990 was our 2007, he says. That’s when the demographic worm turned for the Japanese, as they sank into their long, extended deflationary depression.

In his interview with Puplava, Dent makes a very strong case for deflation ruling the day. According to him, inflation and deflation alternate in cycles that are strongly driven by demographics. So first deflation takes hold, then decelerates, then inflation grabs hold, decelerates, and the cycle starts anew.

In other words, he’s not expecting a repeat of the 1970’s, but instead, the 1930’s. Interestingly I’ve heard this from other market observers as well – some folks favor the 80-year megacycle.

The conversation was fascinating, and I’d highly recommend you give it a listen at least once. He’s going to be re-releasing his book later this year, so stay tuned, as we can reconvene to discuss it after it’s out. I’m looking forward to hearing his latest thoughts.

Here’s the link to the interview: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Dent.html