Current Commodity Futures Positions – 7/27/08

Current Commodity Futures Positions – 7/27/08

Current thoughts on these futures markets:

Australian dollar – Of course, what would a currency trade be without a trip to the wrong side of the ledger? I’ve decided I am no longer using breakouts to determine my entry points with currencies, and have jumped into the Aussie on what I deemed a ‘pullback’. Since, the market has pulled farther back.

Even so, I still like the Aussie to reach parity with the US dollar (probably sooner rather than later). You’ve got the nice interest rate differential, and you’ve also got a commodity currency vs. a make believe currency backed by the faith of the US gov’t.

Cotton futures – Bounced a bit. They have to head higher eventually. Jim Rogers, in his talk at the Agora Investment Symposium this week, named sugar, cotton, and coffee as his favorite commodities right now.

Corn futures – Still in free fall to start the week, have since bounced a bit. Remember corn started the year at $4, so it is still up nearly 50% on the year. Traders are in waiting mode right now, trying to figure out how this year’s crop is looking – and right now, despite the flooding, it looks pretty good.

Potential trades on the horizon for me:

  • Long sugar
  • Long coffee
  • Short US treasuries (esp. 10 year)
  • Long Swiss Franc
  • Long Japanese Yen
  • Long Live Cattle
  • Long Lean Hogs
Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
07/23/08 Long 1 SEP 08 Australian Dlr 0.9567 0.9497 ($700.00)
06/17/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Cotton 82.20 74.80 ($3,700.00)
07/14/08 Short 1 DEC 08 Mini Corn 688 599 $890.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: ($3,510.00)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $80,487.27
Open Trade Equity ($3,510.00)
Total Equity $76,977.27
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $76,977.27

Cashed out: $15,000.00
Total value: $91,977.27

Weekly return: Hell, let’s just call it even…don’t feel like digging out the spreadsheet
YTD return: 16.8%…roughly

***BTW, I usually “cash out” money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.