Comparing the 2008-09 Stock Market With the Great Depression’s 1st Leg Down

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This epic stock market rally has done exactly what it was supposed to do – it’s retraced about half of the losses from the previous crash. It’s got folks feeling comfortable again – while maybe not outright enthusiastic about things, they now believe the carpet is not going to be pulled out from under them. […]

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As financial pundits and common investors breath collective sighs of relief that “the worst is over” and “the bull is back”, let’s explore the possibility that 2009 may be following a script that was originally penned in 1930. After the initial crash in 1929, the markets staged a powerful rally that retraced 60% of these […]

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Came across this stellar piece earlier in the week via John Mauldin’s excellent Outside the Box publication. Authors Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O’Rourke lay our current depression side by side with the Great Depression to see how we measure up…and let me tell you, it’s pretty foreboding! This piece is republished with permission from […]

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Common wisdom about the Great Depression seems to be that Herbert Hoover was a free market, laissez-faire kind of guy, who mistakenly decided to “do nothing” and let the economy work itself out…merely watching as it spiraled down the drain. The rap on Hoover couldn’t be more wrong, says legendary libertarian economist Murray Rothbard. Hoover […]

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Common wisdom holds that depressions are inherently deflationary.  The United States in the 1930’s.  Japan in the 1990’s and 2000’s. Combine a depression with other deflationary factors going today in the US – demographics, deleveraging, falling asset prices, even productivity – and you’ve got some serious deflationary headwinds. (As a side note – I’ve warmed […]

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