Investing and Trading News, with a Contrarian, Sarcastic Twist!
Has any trade over the last few years frustrated more sophisticated investors than the “one-way” bet on rising long-term government interest rates? For the last 2 or 3 years, many (including myself) have been piling into ETFs (like TBT) that act as short proxies for rising long term interest rates. And the logic has been so sound, […]
Which Way Wednesday – On the 50% Line – Again Courtesy of Phil Davis at Phil’s Stock World Wow, what a ride! Here we are back on the 50% retracement line at 1,121 on the S&P. As Barry Ritholtz points out, it’s the 5th time we’ve been here and, as I said yesterday, Barry says “Its going […]
One of the many things that inflation/deflation guys absolutely cannot agree on is if prices are going up or down. The inflation folks love to say “I don’t know where they shop!” while us deflation guys have no shortage of discount shopping anecdotes. ESPN’s Bill Simmons – not an economist, but a damn good sports […]
Today Minyanville carried a piece entitled Seven ETFs to Play Deflation, which highlighted high dividend paying ETFs and interest paying bond funds. While I agree with the premise IF deflation is mild and US growth is merely slower than normal, I’d be cautious about the dividend funds if we see a wicked wave of deflation […]
Seems like somebody at the Wall Street Journal has been diligently reading their Contrary Investing Report! Today the Wall Street Journal piled onto the small but growing Deflation Nation Bandwagon, on the heels of warnings about deflation from Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross, and others: Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers […]
Bond legend Bill Gross shared his latest outlook with CNN Money – and I was glad to see him weigh in on deflation in particular: What about the possibility of deflation occurring? We’re in a struggle between inflation and deflation right now. We may never get to a negative consumer price index, but the danger […]
Today, the volatility index (VXX) hit its lowest level in 3 months. Does this mean we have a large stock market decline in our future? Over the last 6 months, lows in the VIX have corresponded with tops in stocks. Since May’s spike, it’s been a series of lower lows and lower highs for the […]
But – Dr. Doom does not dismiss Prechter’s call altogether (Details on Prechter’s latest predictions here). CNBC reports on Faber’s outlook in his August 2010 Doom, Boom, Gloom Report newsletter: Marc Faber says before dismissing Prechter as a lunatic you should look at his record. In 1978 when he predicted the Dow would reach 2,300 […]
As a career renter living in Northern California, I felt like I was missing out on a raging campfire of a good time in the housing market from 2003-2005. Prices seemed way too high to me to justify purchasing a home. My wife and I couldn’t afford anything decent…but also couldn’t figure out how others […]
Jim Rogers was on CNBC earlier this week, sharing his thoughts and outlook on Q2 Earnings, the Euro, the future of BP, and more. Some of my quick notes are here, with the 7-minute video below: He says don’t worry about Q2 earnings – that’s history. Looking ahead, he’s skeptical that the good earnings news […]
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