Sovereign Man Simon Black gave a nice breakdown of seven bullish fundamentals for agriculture in the years (and even decades) ahead:
On the demand side:
1) World population isn’t getting any smaller for now. Even some of the most Malthusian models show a continued rise in global population for the next few decades until peak resources and economic conditions begin to thin the herd. In the meantime, demand for basic sustenance will continue to rise.
2) More importantly, millions of people in the developing world are being lifted from poverty into the middle class. More wealth means demand for more Calories. Not only does this increase general food demand, but often specific demand for things like beef which require far greater resources to produce.
On the supply side:
1) While industrial farming techniques and genetic modification have dramatically increased productive yield, cultivated land is on the decline. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that, over the last several decades, cultivated land per capita has declined by 43% worldwide.
Read the rest of Simon’s excellent list at SovereignMan.com.
And Simon has some fine company riding the agriculture bull:
- Jim Rogers, of course, loves all commodities, especially agriculture
- Even Jeremy Grantham has turned his watchful eye towards resources over the past year