How to Rebalance a “No Withdrawal” Portfolio

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How to Rebalance a “No Withdrawal” Portfolio

1929, 2008 and, now, 2020.

We’ve only seen this level of “selling pressure” three times since 1900. A limited sample size, sure, but we’re in ominous company. Anything and everything has been dumped in a panic liquidation to raise cash.

We saw a similar “global margin call” in late 2008. A year’s worth of selling crescendoed into a financial crisis grand finale that would eventually conclude in March 2009.

The good news then? If you held tight or, better yet, bought through the panic, you eventually did quite well. Let’s take the worst day of that year. On October 15, 2008, the S&P 500 slid 9% in one day.… Read more

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Inside My “Crash-Resistant” Strategy for 7% Dividends and Upside

During volatile times like these, the best thing to do is this: stay calm and keep collecting your dividends.

Fighting the urge to sell is critical, because doing so could slash your dividend income by 82% or more.

Here’s where I’m getting that number: let’s say you hold the stocks in our Contrarian Income Report portfolio, which yields an average of 7.2% as I write this. (If you bought a while back, you’re likely yielding more on your investment, thanks to our picks’ dividend growth, but let’s use 7.2% as our benchmark here.)

And let’s say you’ve got a reasonable nest egg—about $350K—invested.… Read more

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Late Cycle Investing: Dividend Stocks for 2020 and Beyond

Until a flu-like virus emerged halfway around the world, it’s been three peaceful months since we’d seen a “1% up or down day” in stocks. As usual, the volatility inspired investors to reflect upon the advanced age (almost eleven years) of our current bull market.

To paraphrase the legendary rock band Chicago, does anybody really know what time it is in the rally right now? “Late cycle” is a popular guess. But how late?

Did the streetlights just pop on, or is it 2am with money managers stumbling into their taxis and Ubers outside?

Most rallies don’t make it to eleven, but then again, most don’t follow financial crises either.… Read more

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How to “Inoculate” Your Portfolio From Coronavirus (and Get 6%+ Dividends)

I’m sure you’ve noticed stocks whipsawing in the past week on fears of the spreading coronavirus. We’ll talk income investment strategy shortly, with a specific focus on safe dividends and profits, regardless of where the markets go from here.

First, I should say that I’m not going to go into the health or political implications of this outbreak, which has infected thousands as I write this, with 99% of those in China.

As investors, we need to look at the situation through a clear, logical financial lens. And the good news is that right now we have a great opportunity to safeguard (and even grow) our nest egg—and our dividend income, too.… Read more

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5 Steps for 15% Per Year (Whether Bull or Bear)

Will this bull market actually die of old age this year?

The macro picture is dicey and stock valuations are pricey, but we must stay invested. The stock market goes up about two-thirds of the time. Permabears miss out on compounding and it’s not as easy to be a part-time bear as it sounds.

To illustrate this let’s consider a study by Hulbert Financial. The firm looked at the best “peak market timers”–the gurus who correctly forecasted the bursting of the Internet bubble in March 2000 and the Great Recession in October 2007.

These were the clairvoyant advisors who had their clients out of stocks and mostly in cash when the S&P 500 was about to be chopped in half.… Read more

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Perfect Dividends for the Roaring (or Recessionary?) 2020s

Are we kicking off another episode of the “Roaring 20s” today?

Who knows. Nobody really predicted the 2010s would be an end-to-end bull market. Yet the most hated rally of all-time resulted in stocks nearly quadrupling:

The Epic Rally Few Investors Believed In

A million bucks that sat in a boring S&P 500 fund a decade ago would have grown to $3.5 million. Unfortunately, many experienced investors did not participate in this full rally, still being shell-shocked after 2008.

(Which illustrates why it is important to always be fully invested. Investors who slept through the ’08 carnage quickly made their money back in the years to follow.… Read more

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These Brazen Insiders are Buying Their Own 9.7% Yields Like Crazy

Insider buying can be a great indicator for us income investors to buy alongside management. After all, when the big bosses reach into their own pockets to purchase their own payout streams, it’s a signal that they are confident in more than just the next dividend.

They believe their stock has upside, too. Often this results in total returns (including dividends) up to 214%. I’ll show you some examples, and also break down some current “buy” signals, in a moment.

First, let me make sure we are not mixing up insider buying with insider trading. They are two different things.… Read more

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These 7.5% Yields Will Survive a 2008 Repeat

“I’m 11 years older now. Brett, I just can’t have a repeat of 2008,” my new subscribers often share.

“Now tell me which of these dividends will survive a bear market like that. I want to buy only the safest yields,” they continue.

Fortunately I’m no stranger to dividends that thrive in bear markets. We fittingly launched the Contrarian Income Report months before the market’s tantrum in 2016. The S&P 500 promptly dropped 10% as a welcome present!

It was no problem for our strong dividends, however. In fact, subscribers who focused on their own holdings rather than the financial news likely have missed the broader carnage altogether.… Read more

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How to Collect a “Yield-Curve-Proof” $6,166.67 in Monthly Income

The yield curve is now “inverted.” This warning has preceded “seven of four” recent bear markets (more on this in a moment). Time to be safe and sell everything?

Before we stash cash in the mattress, let’s review the actual facts. Fundamental Capital’s Troy Bombardia, one of my favorite historical finance quants, has run the numbers on what happens to the S&P 500 when the 10-year “long” yield dives below the three-month rate:

  • In 1966, 1973, 2000 and 2006, an inverted yield curve indeed preceded a big stock market pullback (usually by a year or two).
  • Meanwhile in 1978, 1980 and 1989 it didn’t mean much.

… Read more

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I’ve Kept My 2 Top Dividend Stock Tips Secret—Until Now

Let’s face it: this frothy market has made it much tougher to uncover the big, cheap dividends you need to fill out your retirement portfolio. So today we’re going to fight back with my top 2 “off-the-record” strategies for honing in on 7.4%+ dividends that still have a lot of upside ahead.

First, to get a sense of the vice the rebound has locked income investors in, check out this chart:

Stock Bounce Crushes Yields

That amounts to an 18% bounce since Christmas Eve, which has sliced 15% off the S&P 500’s dividend yield (because yields fall as prices rise). As I write, the average S&P 500 name dribbles out a 1.9% payout—less than inflation!… Read more

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