Check out this 6-month chart:
Though unfortunately I am not basking in the full glow of this rally, because I own next year’s contracts.
Why are contracts lower for next year? I believe because record high prices will prompt farmers next spring to plant more wheat – which should bring more supply on the market and drive down prices.
However that begs the question – where is this extra land going to come from? Farmers are currently planting corn from coast to coast at the expense of crops such as wheat – so that balance should swing back in wheat’s favor next year.
Soybeans and cotton are the other two crops that often share land with wheat and corn – so keep an eye on these two. Soybean prices are relatively high, but cotton prices remain cheap – and perhaps part of this thinking is fueling the current rally in cotton.