Grains and Softs Showing Some Signs
Seasonally this is the time of year for corn to rally – as the saying goes, if corn doesn’t rally by the Fourth (of July), it’s not gonna happen.
We are in “wait and see” mode across the board with respect to agriculture. We continue to hold our sugar position, and coffee looks particularly interesting once again, as I continue to see reports of disappointing supply this year.
Update on Japanese Yen Short Position
The Japanese Yen was quite volatile this week – down, then up, then down again – ending the week about where it began.
Japan posted it’s first trade deficit
in 13 years, as exports have fallen off a cliff. But then the man known as “Mr. Yen” made a bullish statement regarding his expectations for the Yen, propelling it above the 104 mark mid-week. Finally the market refocused on Japan’s deteriorating GDP, sending the Yen back down.
Japan seems to be in a real economic pickle. The country has serious demographic problems, and it’s likely that Japan as we know it has entered what will be a long, terminal decline. Everyone is just getting too old, and there will soon not be enough people left to work.
Since Japan’s economy is largely export driven, expect Japan to do whatever it can to weaken the Yen vs. the dollar.
Around the Investing World
Current Futures Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Last Profit
03/02/09 Short 1 JUN 09 Japanese Yen 1.0271 1.0222 $612.50
02/27/09 Long 1 MAY 09 Sugar #11 13.79 12.89 ($1,008)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions ($395.50)
Current Account Value: $28,992.67
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $48,992.67
Weekly return: -0.4%
2009 YTD return: -42.9% (yikes)
Prior year’s results:
Initial stake: $2,000.00