To figure out where to place my Super Bowl bet (I’m sure you’re stunned a commodity trader like me would ever gamble), I consider two factors:
- Which team do the talking heads seem to be favoring
- Where is the “public” placing it’s bets
Last year, this technique worked well, as I took the Giants with the points, because I thought the spread was too high because everyone was scared to bet against the Pats.
This year, my highly inexact science of gauging the media (read: ESPN) has me thinking that there is a little too much “The Cardinals could keep this game really close” talk.
The spread seems to low to me – I thought it’d be double digits – maybe because everyone is fearing the underdog after last year.
As a backup, I also like to check the public betting percentage, as a contrarian indicator. The site I use is www.thespread.com – right now it’s down, presumably from all the degenerates trying to check the latest line. When I had checked earlier in the week, 58% of the public was betting in favor of the Cards.
With both indicators lining up, we’re talking the Steelers -7 of the Cardinals tomorrow in Super Bowl 43.
And, of course, can’t wait for the halftime show – what if Bruce rocks all night like he’s at MSG, and they never get to play the 2nd half?