My dad, regular blog reader and link contributor, just sent me a classic “stocks for the long run” article, published over on Fidelity.com. This piece is a real gem – with the author genuflecting at the feet of the chief stock cheerleader himself, Mr. Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run. We’ve even got some recent quotes and insights from Siegel in the article!
- #1 – Opening red flag… The article is published on Fidelity.com. Expecting impartial stock advice on Fidelity.com is like expecting a libertarian slant on Recovery.gov. Or bearish commodity news on CommodityBullMarket.com 🙂
- #2 – Wow, really?… Making predictions about short-term market moves is extremely hazardous, as Siegel well knows. Like me, he failed to predict the collapse in the financial system last September and its impact on the markets. “I didn’t see the balance sheets of these banks and investment banks,” Siegel says. “I didn’t realize they held so many subprime mortgages.”
- Dear reader – please, if you’re going to buy a “stock for the long run” – take a look at the balance sheet. If you can’t figure out what’s on the balance sheet…you may want to hold off on buying the stock.
- #3 – Swami predicts… –At any rate, Siegel thinks the economy has probably turned up already: “We’re going to have a faster recovery in the second half of the year than most people think. The upward slope on the V will not be as steep as usual, but we’re not going to have an L-shaped economy, either.”
- From the guy who was blindsided by the subprime meltdown…a contrarian indicator?
- #4 – Easy short candidate… He’s also bullish on high-yield “junk” bonds, even though they have rallied strongly this year after tumbling in 2008.
- Nothing like jumping into a rally in the 8th inning! Buy high, sell higher!
- #5 – Stock jocks rejoice… “Tell me what investment will do better than stocks today,” Siegel says. “Real estate is in the doghouse. Commodities aren’t cheap. Bonds, except for junk bonds, are overpriced. Treasury bonds are ridiculously overpriced.”
- I can’t wait for his next book 15-years from now entitled: Farmland for the Long Run