Special "Impending Crash" Positions Adjustment

Special "Impending Crash" Positions Adjustment

Like everyone else – I’m worried the US markets are going to crash, or at least severely tank, tomorrow. Grains have been down big already this week, and the US markets have not even opened.

So instead of waiting around to be slaughtered like a lamb…I’m trying to play a little offense. Here’s an overview of the trades I made tonight – we’ll see how they work out tomorrow.

  1. Sold the grains. They have been looking weak. Needed to deleverage.
  2. Shorted crude oil. This is a hedge. If the softs drop (sugar, cotton, etc) in panic selling, I imagine crude will suffer more.
  3. Bought the Japanese Yen. I expect we could see a spike in the Yen and/or Swiss Franc amid panic selling, as traders rush to cover their carry trades.

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Strike Call/Put Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
01/03/08 Long 1 MAR 08 Corn 468 478 1/4 $512.50
01/14/08 Long 1 MAR 08 Cocoa 2214 2126 ($880.00)
12/20/07 Long 1 MAR 08 Cotton 66.45 70.79 $2,170.00
01/09/08 Long 1 MAR 08 Cotton 69.61 70.79 $590.00
01/22/08 Long 1 MAR 08 Japanese Yen 0.9460 0.9461 $12.50
11/09/07 Long 1 MAR 08 Coffee ‘C’ 126.05 133.00 $2,606.25
01/22/08 Short 1 MAR 08 Crude Oil (e-miNY) 87.450 87.400 $25.00
12/20/07 Long 1 MAR 08 Sugar #11 11.10 12.16 $1,187.20
06/04/07 Long 2 JUL 08 Sugar #11 10.05 12.65 $5,824.00
08/01/07 Long 1 JUL 08 Sugar #11 10.48 12.65 $2,430.40
12/20/07 Long 1 JUL 08 Sugar #11 11.37 12.65 $1,433.60
10/18/06 Long 1 JUL 08 Sugar #11 12.08 12.65 $638.40
01/02/08 Long 1 MAR 08 Swiss Franc 0.899500 0.9037 $525.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $17,074.85

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