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Well we were either early, or wrong, on our persistent warnings that the return of deflation was imminent. And experienced investors and traders know that you should never fight the tape! The tape kicked off 2011 with a definitive message that the bulls – and/or the inflationists – are still in the driver’s seat. Crude […]
Quietly, Chinese stocks continue to slide, now down 12% for the year to date. Since China had announced its plans to target inflation, the Shanghai Index has taken it on the chin: Chinese stocks quickly retraced a portion of their 2008 losses – and then slowly faded. (Source: StockCharts.com) Regular readers know that we like […]
The AAII sentiment survey – an informal gauge of short term bullish/bearish/neutral sentiment amongst individual investors – has hit a 13-month high, with 50.89% of investors describing themselves as bullish. While not an extreme reading, it is worth noting, as this is one more data point that may indicate we’re in for at least a […]
We always love a good contrary indicator! And here’s a great one from Barry Ritholtz on his always-excellent blog entitled Are Wall Street Analysts Contrary Indicators? As we have noted so many times previously, following the Wall Street crowd of analysts is rarely the way to make money. Collectively, the analyst community has turned excessively […]
There’s still not much of an appetite to buy stocks – but volume remains very quiet as the dog days of summer wind down. We’ve been expecting a decline in stocks, and have been watching for slowly rising volume to accompany these declines to give us a heads up that there is some “umph” behind […]
These days we are keeping a keen eye on markets that have been reliable leading indicators of the stock market. Since 2004 or so, markets have become quite interrelated, creating a lot of interesting relationships in markets that previously had little or no correlation. The correlation of course peaked during the 2007-2009 downturn, when EVERYTHING […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been following the Baltic Dry Index as a leading indicator of the Reflation Rally for some time now…in fact, we’ve been watching it with a wary eye all the way since last August! Well, topping processes can often be long, drawn out events. It looks like this has come to […]
Soon after stocks bottomed on March 6, 2009, we noticed that commodity prices – most notably agriculture prices – were starting to rally. In early May, we wrote about the rally in soft commodities, and what it implied for the inflation/deflation outlook: A few weeks ago (April ’09), we noticed that not only had commodities appeared […]
It took the market exactly ONE trading day to catch on to our contrarian minded (and thoughtful) opinion of Europe’s bailout plan – that is, that the plan is a complete joke, and is nothing more than merely kicking the can down the road. Stocks and oil both dropped today after starting the day up […]
As if the largest stock market decline since October 2008 wasn’t enough to put the fear of God back into stock market bulls (and by the way, it was hilarious to see Matt Lauer once again shaking with financial fear on the Today Show this morning) – here’s another piece of bad news: This drop […]
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