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by Carl Swenlin On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi vowed to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. This has so far sparked a two-day rally in the global markets led by Europe. In our opinion, what it will take is for people/governments to stop spending more than they make. This, of course, will […]
by Carl Swenlin The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio gives an improved view of sentiment extremes by using cumulative cash flow (CCFL) into Rydex mutual funds rather than using the totals of assets in those funds (which we use for the Rydex Asset Ratio). It is calculated by dividing Money Market plus Bear Funds CCFL by Bull […]
by Carl Swenlin On April 27 I wrote an article titled, Gold At A Decision Point, wherein I observed conditionally that things looked favorable for the start of another leg up. Since then, the technical picture has improved slightly, but it still feels like a struggle. (This is a recent excerpt from the blog for Decision […]
It’s officially May – time to sell the markets and go away? Does this even still apply these days? Technician Carl Swenlin considers these seasonal tendencies with respect to the all-important primary trend… Six-Month Seasonality Turns Unfavorable by Carl Swenlin May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by […]
We always hear that the bull market may have some additional runway between here and the 2007 historical highs on the S&P. But when adjusting for dividend payouts, are we going to get there sooner than the widely used roadmaps indicate? Technical analyst extraordinaire Carl Swenlin compares the SPY chart with SPX, and concludes that […]
Technical extraordinaire Carl Swenlin puts on his fundamental hat here, as he gauges the current valuation of the S&P 500 at large. This seemingly cut-and-dry debate always seems to draw opinions that are all over the map! Swenlin, as usual, keeps a level-head in his analysis. A couple of points I found particularly interesting: How […]
One of the most widely watch barometers for investor sentiment is the AAII survey, as it seems to capture the essence of the armchair investors’ sentiment at the moment. Technical guru Carl Swenlin has been watching the AAII numbers, and is concerned at the high bull to bear ratio we’re seeing today. Sentiment Becoming Too […]
Maybe…in another decade or so, says technical guru Carl Swenlin. Either that, or you may be able to make a fine go of it playing the range. Carl explains… Housing Recovery? by Carl Swenlin The market rally on Wednesday was driven in part by a surge in housing stocks, which was triggered by a favorable […]
This IS still a secular bear market…right? I have to admit that I’ve been totally miffed by the relentless rally that began in March 2009. At least I’m in very good company – expert technician and Contrary Investing favorite Carl Swenlin also admits he’s been perplexed as well… Different Kind of Bull Market By Carl […]
By Carl Swenlin Whenever possible it is best to look at a price index in the long-, medium-, and short-term time frames. For me that means analyzing monthly, weekly, and daily bar charts. ————————– (This is an excerpt from the October 21, 2011 blog for Decision Point subscribers.) Click here for FREE TRIAL! ————————— First, […]
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