Investing and Trading News, with a Contrarian, Sarcastic Twist!
“Do something!” is a common refrain clueless voters and politician like to rally around when it comes to “fixing” our Humpty Dumpty economy. To which I usually protest: “No – don’t do anything!” Because government can only harm the economy by getting involved – as we’ve seen once again over the last three years. It’s […]
Not bad – Rosenberg had the S&P fair value pegged much lower last time (in the range of 650 to be precise). From today’s Breakfast With Dave: S&P 500: No surprise here, the U.S. market continues to be overvalued. According to our proprietary models, the median fair-value for the S&P 500 is 1,120 (with a range […]
Over the weekend I caught a good interview that Jim Puplava conducted with economic commentator Gonzalo Lira about possible shakeout ramifications for the Euro as a result of the accelerating sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Lira laid out two potential scenarios: The PIIGS withdraw from the Eurozone, leaving the sounder core member (Germany, France, etc) […]
Big hat tip to our friend Brian Hunt, who referenced this classic trading passage and lesson from Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It’s about a humble, old, and somewhat eccentric trader who appeared to be wiser than those around him because, rather than trading in and out of positions, he was content to […]
Next Year – The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle! Being Street Smart Sy Harding December 20, 2010. The history of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle is that the stock market tends to experience its worst corrections and bear markets in one or both of the first two years of a president’s term, and then be […]
Quietly, Chinese stocks continue to slide, now down 12% for the year to date. Since China had announced its plans to target inflation, the Shanghai Index has taken it on the chin: Chinese stocks quickly retraced a portion of their 2008 losses – and then slowly faded. (Source: StockCharts.com) Regular readers know that we like […]
Here’s an interesting take on the lasting effects of WikiLeaks from geopolitical expert George Friedman, Founder of Stratfor. I go on and off with my subscription to Stratfor – they give excellent insights into geopolitics, taking a game theory approach to determine what actions the various actors will take. While I’m not currently a subscriber, […]
Municipal bonds continue to get taken to the cleaners – here’s an ugly chart for ya: Muni bonds fall off a cliff. (Source: StockCharts.com) Ever since the Muni Bond Put known at the Build America Bonds fund was given an expiration date, investors have shown little appetite for tax-free municipal debt. Mish Shedlock explored the […]
Continuing on our theme from yesterday that investor sentiment has reached an extreme level of jubilation, John Hussman writes that we’ve now reached the pantheon of “awful times to invest”: In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last […]
Overall credit, as measured by the quarterly Z1 report, turned up significantly in the 3rd quarter for the first time in a few quarters – does this mean the deflation threat passed? Fellow deflationist Vox Day is not impressed – he writes: So, while Z1 reports a quarterly increase of 0.43% in overall credit, the first […]
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