Courtesy of David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff:
- The VIX index, at 17.5x, is back to where it was last April. Remember what happened next.
- Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment is back to where it was at the all-time market highs of October 2007.
- The non-commercial accounts on the CME have recently opened up a considerable net speculative long position in equities, particularly the QQQ’s (Nasdaq stocks).
- Market leadership is narrowing, as Bob Farrell has been busy pointing out.
- The number of short-selling positions slid 2.2% in the first half of December on the NYSE; and by 2.8% on the Nasdaq. The bears are running scared.
- As Kelly Evans asserted last week, the AAII investor sentiment poll has been above its historical norm now for 17 weeks running – the longest stretch in six years.
- Since July, margin debt has exploded by 16% to $274 billion, the most since September 2008 when people still thought we were in a soft landing.
- Equity mutual funds and ETF’s took in $24 billion in December (TrimTabs data) – when bonds were attracting inflows like this last year, the vast majority believed the fixed-income market was in some sort of bubble, which was to be avoided.