This “Lonely, Uncomfortable” Stock Move Delivers Big Gains

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Here’s one thing most folks get wrong about dividend cuts: They can (and often do) set up terrific buying opportunities!

I know, I know. Before our customer-service inbox lights up here at Contrarian Outlook, let me be clear that we dividend investors hate payout cuts. No one wants to see their income stream and their investment take a hit, as scorned investors toss the stock.

But buying a dividend after a cut (or even before, under the right conditions) can be a winning move. It’s a setup that reminds me of the words of Howard Marks, the most successful investor no one has ever heard of (except Warren Buffett, who is a fan).… Read more

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I’m this close to sending out a buy call on a stock that—if I do—I know would light up the phone lines (and customer-service inbox!) at our New York office.

There’s a good reason why: Imagine being along for this drop.

New “Watch-List” Addition Sheds Two-Thirds of Its Value

(Heck, given that this stock was till recently a staple of many dividend portfolios, maybe you don’t have to imagine.)

That’s the peak-to-trough dive on 3M Co. (MMM) in the last six years. To put it in perspective, it came as the broader S&P 500 gained 79%.

I know that buying—or even considering—a stock with a chart like this gives many folks heart palpitations.… Read more

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The 2024 Dogs of the Dow are particularly homely hounds—which means we’re talking big dividends.

This year’s Dogs yield more than three-times the broader market’s paltry payout. So, should we hold our noses and buy? Let’s grab some peanut butter treats and investigate. But first, a review of the “Dogs” strategy.

The “Dogs of the Dow” strategy means buying the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s laggards. It’s a simple three-step strategy that often outperforms in the year ahead:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.
  • Step 2: Buy all 10 stocks in equal amounts and hold them for a year.

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Looking for the Dogs of the Dow, 2023 edition? You came to the right place.

We’ll explore these 10 blue-chip dividend bargains in a moment. Collectively, they are yielding 4.5%! But first, a quick recap of the strategy and homage to its 2022 “mini miracle.”

Last year was a dumpster fire for most mainstream investors. The market-at-large dropped 18%. “Safe” bond funds shed 25%, 30% or more. Yikes.

But the dogs ran. Not only did they outpace the market, but they delivered positive gains!

Who were these income greyhounds? And what’s the lineup for ’23? First, a refresher on this simple three-step strategy:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.

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Thank you, bear market. Thanks to a terrible 2022, we have four dirt-cheap dividend payers dishing up to 9%.

These are cash cows I’m talking about. Companies that gush free cash flow and shovel it back to us in the form of big yields.

Earnings are accounting numbers. Cash flow is real life.

And it’s not out of deals, either—in fact, over the past few days, I’ve kept increasingly close watch over a four-pack of cash cows with high yields of up to 9% and deliciously low prices.

But given a still-dangerous market environment, we need to focus on quality.… Read more

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Nobody’s perfect. And in 2022, it’s particularly hard to pretend that you never make a losing trade as the market has been incredibly volatile through no fault of our own.

That said, there’s the old saying that the definition of insanity is doing something over and over but expecting different results. So if you have a habit of making bad trades, maybe the bigger problem isn’t the stock market… but your strategy.

One particularly risky strategy that I see some income investors cling to is the notion of placing a priority on yield above everything else. And like Captain Renault, these investors always seem to be shocked – shocked!… Read more

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Once upon a time, it was hard to find an income strategy much better than the idiot-proof “Dogs of the Dow.”

And hey, in this wild market in which the S&P can drop 2% in a couple of hours, this sounds pretty good. Let’s buy some blue chips and earn 3x more income than the broader market.

Which Dogs are paying the biggest dividends for 2022? As a group these battleship businesses are paying 3.8% versus just 1.2% for the broader market. We’ll review them in a moment. First, the Dogs of the Dow rules:

  • Rule 1: After the final trading day of the year, identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.

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Markets took a dive (then posted a lightning-fast recovery) last week, a return to volatility that’s a good reminder to cast an eye over our dividend portfolios.

One thing to pay particular attention to is the amount of cash you’re holding. Because if you’re like many investors I’ve talked to recently, you’re holding too much of it—and that can cause a steady wealth drain that bleeds away thousands in returns every year!

Taking Money Off the Table—at Exactly the Wrong Time

Of course, having a healthy cash cushion is always a good thing. The trouble for most folks, though, is that they’ve been growing the amount of cash they have outside the market just as stocks have taken off.… Read more

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For income investors, dividend strategies don’t come any easier than the “Dogs of the Dow.”

But does this simple technique still work?

We’ll look at the 2021 Dogs, and their attached dividends (and prospects) in a moment. Their yields aren’t too shabby, averaging 4.1% in a 1% world! First, let’s review the mechanics of the popular contrarian strategy:

  • Step 1: After the final trading day of the year, we identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow.
  • Step 2: We buy all 10 in equal amounts.

That’s it. In just a couple of quick steps, executed just once every year, we can put together a mini-portfolio of 10 blue-chip stocks that typically out-yield the S&P 500, and currently offer 2.5 times more dividends than the broad market index.… Read more

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Successful dividend investing can actually be pretty simple. Don’t trade for years, perhaps for a full decade, and then buy super high-quality dividend stocks at bargain basement prices.

One set of trades every decade. Not bad.

It’s the way of the world. There’s always something brewing. From the “original crash” of modern times, 1987, to the tech bubble bursting in 2000 or the financial world nearly collapsing in 2008.

Now, it’s 2020, and the world is again ending. We’ll make it to the other side, of course, but between here and there we are going to have a fantastic opportunity to buy blue-chip dividends.… Read more

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