How Do You Project Dividend Income?

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Retirement is simple (we stop working). But it’s not necessarily easy (build up a passive income stream that replaces our previous wages).

Retiring on dividends is my jam. Payouts that arrive every quarter—or better yet, every month—are about as passive as it gets. “Mailbox” money.

Which is ideal. We’re not trying to work here, people! We’re crafting an income stream so that we needn’t answer to anyone else.

When our payouts—plus social security and any pension payments (remember those?)—surpass our expenses, we’re there. See ya, Corporate America!

And remember, we employ a “No Withdrawal” Portfolio. We live on dividends alone, which helps us keep our capital intact.… Read more

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It’s rare to see two bad years in a row. I have a hunch that 2023 may rhyme with 2009. Bear markets don’t usually last longer than a year. A spectacular shakeout early in the year could set the stage for a steady grind higher later on.

That said, we contrarians don’t buy hunches. Until we see an edge, we’ll remain cautious—and follow these rules:

2023 Rule #1: Don’t fight the Fed. Print this rule out and tape it next to your computer. Or the backside of your phone. Or whatever device you use to make trades.

As long as the Federal Reserve is tightening, the obvious path for all stock and bond prices is down.… Read more

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$500K can be enough money to retire on. Even as early as age 50!

The trick is to convert the pile of cash into cash flow that can pay the bills. I’m talking about $35,000 to $40,000 per year or more in dividend income on that nest egg, thanks to 7% and 8% yields.

These are passive payouts that show up every quarter or, better yet, every month. Meanwhile, we keep that $500K nest egg intact. Or, better yet, grind that principal higher steadily and safely.

Got more in your retirement account? Cool—more monthly dividend income for you!

We’ll talk specific stocks, funds and yields in a moment.… Read more

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The US consumer just got a $162-billion “pay raise,” and I’m betting you haven’t heard a word about it. Today, we’re going to tap that “extra” cash through a 6.6%-yielding fund that trades at 87 cents on the dollar.

What I’m getting at is the good news story we’ve heard little about in the media: the extra cash consumers are pocketing thanks to the recent plunge in gasoline prices.

It’s no small amount, either: according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, US households save about $125 billion in total for every dollar the price at the pump drops. And with average pump prices now around $3.70 a gallon, down from north of $5 in June, we’re looking at about $162 billion being thrown back into the economy, or around $13 billion a month. Read more

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If you’re like me, you regularly hear from friends who brag about how they’ve successfully timed the market in the past. What these folks will never tell you is the number of times they’ve missed the boat!

Take last week, when millions of folks were parked on the sidelines, terrified (thanks to scaremongering media reports) that the July CPI print would come in worse than expected, triggering a selloff.

Of course, we now know that the exact opposite happened—and I’m guessing you won’t hear from your friends who failed to grab that bounce!

Look, when other folks do manage to pull off this trick, I salute them.… Read more

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Why would anyone want to pay full price for a stock?

Many common tickers can be bought for 5%, 10% and even 12% off in the closed-end fund (CEF) aisle. These discounted CEFs are the closest thing to a free lunch we have on Wall Street. And most investors don’t know about them because, well, they don’t read enough Contrarian Outlook!

CEFs are unique vehicles. They are one of the last corners of the stock market with a sweet inefficiency. Unlike their mutual fund and ETF cousins, CEFs have fixed pools of shares. Which means they can trade at premiums and discounts to the values of their underlying assets.… Read more

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These days, everyone is looking for safety—and that’s got some folks pondering some pretty, er, unusual strategies that seem secure but are in fact anything but.

One such strategy is known as dividend capture, which sounds like a way to bag a company’s quarterly cash dividend without taking the risk of owning the shares. I don’t like the name because it sounds like something we dividend investors should be interested in. I don’t like the approach itself because it doesn’t really work.

The theory seems innocent enough:

  1. Find a stock that is about to pay a dividend,
  2. Buy it before it’s “ex-dividend date,”
  3. Pocket the payout, and
  4. Sell the shares after.

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Here at Contrarian Outlook, we’ve been talking a lot about crypto lately—but not in the way you might think.

We’re not buyers—far from it! Instead, we’re using a savvy, dividend-focused strategy to set ourselves up for some nice gains (and dividend payouts!) as gamblers flee crypto and speculative tech stocks. (I’ll spotlight two closed-end funds that are aligned to scoop up our “crypto refugees” while handing us dividends yielding up to 11% in just a moment.)

I’m reminded of crypto right now because many of these “coins” have fallen hard recently—and last week, we got word of one that went essentially to zero!… Read more

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I always laugh when I hear investors say you can’t time the market. Truth is, you can—my readers and I have done it many times! I’m going to show you my favorite way to time the market for big upside (and dividends) today.

The best way is to let you see my system in action. So let’s do that.

Think back to October 2020 for a second. With the market mess that is 2022 dominating the headlines now, you may not remember that we faced a big pullback then—just north of 10%.

It set the stage for us to “swing trade” for payouts north of 7%, and quick 49% upside, too.… Read more

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With the swift stock-market decline we’ve seen since the start of 2022, and now, you can be forgiven if your stomach tightens just a bit when you go to check your retirement account.

So today I’m going to give you my three best tips for securing your hard-earned cash—and even better, locking in a dividend stream you can easily live off of in retirement. And no, you won’t need a seven-figure nest egg to pull off what I’m going to show you now.

Step #1: Diversify the Right Way

You no doubt know that diversification is key to protecting your wealth, but if you only go halfway, you’re hurting your gain potential (and exposing yourself to potentially severe losses).… Read more

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